Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/02/25

Highmark StadiumCBS
Chiefs
Chiefs
Today
Bills
Bills
WLWWW
Last 5
WWLLW
5-3Record5-2
5-3-0ATS Record3-4-0
3-5O/U Record4-3
Buffalo Bills

Chiefs vs Bills Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
BUF Bills +2.5(-115)

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have an interesting history over the last four seasons. The Bills are 4-0 against the Chiefs in the regular season and 0-3 in the postseason since 2021. These AFC powers meet at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park as the Bills look to build off a 40-9 road blowout of the Panthers last Sunday as 7.5-point favorites. Buffalo entered its game at Carolina off a bye and a two-game losing streak. Bills’ RB James Cook ran for 216 yards and 2 TDs, while QB Josh Allen rushed for a pair of TDs. The Bills covered for the first time in five games, as Buffalo limited an opponent to single-digits for the first time this season. The Chiefs have won all five games this season by 13 or more, capped off by Monday’s 28-7 rout of Washington as 10-point home favorites.

During this 3-game winning streak, Kansas City has allowed 24 points, with 17 of those coming to Detroit in Week 6. Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes has thrown 3 TDs in each of those victories, while completing 73.7% of his passes. In last year’s regular season meeting in Buffalo, the Bills beat the Chiefs, 30-23 even though Mahomes posted 3 TD passes. In the AFC championship game, Kansas City held off Buffalo, 32-29, the third playoff victory in the series decided by six points or less. The Bills won outright in their only opportunity as an underdog in their comeback triumph over the Ravens in Week 1, 41-40. The Chiefs are 1-2 ATS in three favorite opportunities away from Arrowhead Stadium, including outright losses to the Chargers and Jaguars. Let’s ride the trend of this series and back the Bills as a short underdog to beat the Chiefs here in a regular season matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills prediction: Bills +2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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Kevin Rogers
Game Totals Pick
Over 52.5(-105)

Both matchups last season between Kansas City and Buffalo finished Over the total. In the regular season meeting in Buffalo, the Bills won 30-21 as QB Josh Allen’s late TD run got the game Over the total of 47.5. In the AFC Championship in Kansas City, the Chiefs held off the Bills, 32-29 on a 49 total, as the total cashed with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter. This season the Chiefs are 2-1 to the Over in 3 games away from home, including in the Monday night loss at Jacksonville. Kansas City is 5-3 to the Under this season, as the defense has stepped up by allowing seven points in the past two games. The Bills are 4-3 to the Over, including a 3-1 Over mark at Highmark Stadium. In three of four home games, Buffalo has scored at least 31 points.

In the last four matchups, Allen has thrown 5 TDs, while Mahomes has tossed 7 TDs. Both the Bills and Chiefs rank in the top-5 of the NFL in yards per game, while Buffalo leads the league in rushing yards per game at 164.4. On the flip side, the Bills are second in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, followed by the Chiefs. In three games with a total of 50 or higher, the Bills are 2-1 this season, while Kansas City finished Under against Detroit on a 52.5 total. Buffalo has faced one quarterback that ranks in the top-15 in passing yards this season, which is New England’s Drake Maye. Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is second in the NFL in passing yards with 2,099, which will be a test for this Buffalo defense. The Chiefs have faced two subpar offenses the last two weeks in Washington and Las Vegas. The history between the Chiefs and Bills suggests that there will be points scored here and the Over is worth a strong look in this battle of AFC powers.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills prediction: Over 52.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Kevin Rogers
Kevin covers the NFL for Pickswise from sunny south Florida. He has been handicapping the NFL professionally since 2007, as well the NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, and college basketball. He looks forward to a profitable season at Pickswise.
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Top Trends
Game Totals

The Chiefs' last three games against the Bills have gone over the expected points total

Money Line

The Chiefs have won four of their last five games against AFC East teams

Point Spread

The Bills are 4-1 against the handicap in their last five games as home underdogs

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