Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction, Odds and Picks for Thursday, 11/27/25

The Thanksgiving Day schedule in Week 13 of the NFL season features a showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys in Dallas. It is an absolutely massive matchup, as both teams are teetering on the edge of wild-card contention in their respective conferences. I would not back the Cowboys without the hook, but I think they can keep this contest within a field goal. As such, my Chiefs vs Cowboys pick is for the home team to cover. Dallas kept itself alive in the NFC playoff picture with a monumental 24-21 victory over Philadelphia from 21-0 down this past Sunday at AT&T Stadium. The defense has looked much improved (granted, that’s not saying a lot) following the trade-deadline acquisitions of DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson, while QB Dak Prescott and WR George Pickens are simply on fire these days. Pickens has caught 18 of 20 targets for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns over the past 2 games.

Kansas City kept its AFC wild-card hopes afloat with a 23-20 home win over Indianapolis in Week 12. It was an impressive result, but the Chiefs were behind 20-9 in the fourth quarter and just 1 or 2 plays by Daniel Jones here and there could have iced it in the Colts’ favor. These still aren’t the Chiefs of old. They are 6-5 overall and had lost 2 straight prior to their defeat of Indy. They are 1-4 away from home this season (1-3 in true road games). Patrick Mahomes delivering more late heroics to steal a win would not come as much of a surprise, but I don’t see the visitors covering -3.5.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys prediction: Cowboys +3.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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