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Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Thanksgiving NFL Week 13 2025 for Today, 11/27/25

AT&T StadiumCBS
Chiefs
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6-5Record5-5-1
5-6-0ATS Record6-5-0
3-8O/U Record6-5
Dallas Cowboys

Chiefs vs Cowboys Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
DAL Cowboys +3.5(-112)

The Thanksgiving Day schedule in Week 13 of the NFL season features a showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys in Dallas. It is an absolutely massive matchup, as both teams are teetering on the edge of wild-card contention in their respective conferences. I would not back the Cowboys without the hook, but I think they can keep this contest within a field goal. As such, my Chiefs vs Cowboys pick is for the home team to cover. Dallas kept itself alive in the NFC playoff picture with a monumental 24-21 victory over Philadelphia from 21-0 down this past Sunday at AT&T Stadium. The defense has looked much improved (granted, that’s not saying a lot) following the trade-deadline acquisitions of DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson, while QB Dak Prescott and WR George Pickens are simply on fire these days. Pickens has caught 18 of 20 targets for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns over the past 2 games.

Kansas City kept its AFC wild-card hopes afloat with a 23-20 home win over Indianapolis in Week 12. It was an impressive result, but the Chiefs were behind 20-9 in the fourth quarter and just 1 or 2 plays by Daniel Jones here and there could have iced it in the Colts’ favor. These still aren’t the Chiefs of old. They are 6-5 overall and had lost 2 straight prior to their defeat of Indy. They are 1-4 away from home this season (1-3 in true road games). Patrick Mahomes delivering more late heroics to steal a win would not come as much of a surprise, but I don’t see the visitors covering -3.5.

Chiefs vs Cowboys prediction: Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ricky Dimon
Game Totals Pick
Under 51.5(-110)

This is currently the highest total of the week, tied with a game involving the Bengals — which is always going to be a monster number regardless of who they are playing. In the case of this game, I think it’s a number slightly too large. As a result, my Chiefs vs Cowboys pick is under 51.5. This Kansas City offense simply is not the same as it was in recent seasons. Travis Kelce’s production is declining and the running game is borderline nonexistent. Now the Chiefs are facing a Cowboys defense that has progressed from horrendous to perhaps at least somewhat respectable. The Eagles did not score a single point over the final 41 minutes this past weekend.

Fortunately for head coach Andy Reid’s side, the defense has been solid. Kansas City ranks #8 league wide against the run (97.6 yards per game allowed) and #11 against the pass (195.4 yards). It is also #4 in scoring, allowing a mere 18.3 points per contest. Jacksonville (31 points) is the only  Chiefs opponent that has reached the 30-point mark this entire year, and that was only because the Jags returned an interception 99 yards for a touchdown. There will be some offense on Thursday — but probably not to the extent that a 51.5 number suggests.

Chiefs vs Cowboys prediction: Under 51.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ricky Dimon
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Ricky Dimon

Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports -- just about any and all you can think of! -- and coaching tennis in Atlanta, GA. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me. For Ricky Dimon media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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Game Totals

8 of the Chiefs' last 10 games (80%) have stayed under the Total.

Point Spread

The Cowboys have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.

Money Line

The Chiefs have won 4 of their last 5 at NFC teams.

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