Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 11/16/25

Empower Field at Mile HighCBS
Chiefs
Chiefs
Sun Nov 16
Broncos
Broncos
LWWWL
Last 5
WWWWW
5-4Record8-2
5-4-0ATS Record4-6-0
3-6O/U Record3-7
Denver Broncos

Chiefs vs Broncos Best Bets

Point Spread PickBest Bet
KC Chiefs -4.0(-105)

Heading into mid-November, not many people thought the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs would be sitting in third place of the AFC West at 5-4. The Chiefs travel to Denver as a road favorite against the division-leading Broncos. Kansas City has won five of its last seven games since an 0-2 start, but looks to bounce back after dropping an AFC Championship rematch at Buffalo, 28-21 prior to the bye week. The Chiefs have failed to cover in their last two opportunities as a road favorite, with their last victory in this role coming in Week 3 against the Giants.

The Broncos started the season at 1-2, but have pulled off seven straight victories. Five of the past six wins for Sean Payton’s team have come by four points or fewer, capped off by a 10-7 home triumph over the Raiders last Thursday. Four times in this stretch, Denver has trailed in the fourth quarter, including the ridiculous 33-32 comeback win over the Giants when the Broncos were down 19-0.

Denver has posted a 2-0-1 mark against the spread as an underdog this season, while getting listed as a home ‘dog for the first time since Week 6 of 2024 against the Chargers. In both opportunities last season, the Broncos lost to L.A. and Pittsburgh when receiving points at home. Since 2020, the Chiefs have been listed as a touchdown favorite or higher in nine of the past 10 matchups. In last season’s finale, the Broncos blanked the Chiefs, 38-0 as 11.5-point home favorites as most of Kansas City’s starters sat out.

Although the Broncos are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings with the Chiefs, many of those covers came as a heavy underdog. This pointspread is telling us that Kansas City is the right side here as a road favorite to bounce back from the loss at Buffalo.

Chiefs vs Broncos best bet: Chiefs -4 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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Chiefs vs Broncos Pickswise Expert Predictions

Game Totals Pick
Under 44.0(-110)

Both teams have been solid defensively this season, as Kansas City is 6-3 to the Under, while Denver owns a 7-3 Under mark. Both teams rank in the top six of the NFL in yards allowed per game, as the Broncos sit fourth in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. The Chiefs are in the midst of a 4-0 Under run the last four contests, as Kansas City lost to Buffalo, 28-21 on a 52.5 total two weeks ago.

The Broncos allowed 24 points to the Cowboys three weeks ago, but have yielded a total of 23 points in the past two wins over the Texans and Raiders. The offense hasn’t done much since the 44-point outburst against Dallas, putting up 28 points in the last two weeks. In the previous two games, QB Bo Nix has been held to 173 and 150 passing yards. The Chiefs rank seventh in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, while giving up less than 225 passing yards in seven of the last eight contests.

Each of the past four matchups between these AFC West rivals have finished Under the total. However, the Week 18 shutout by the Broncos last season can be thrown out since Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and plenty of other Kansas City starters didn’t suit up. In the four meetings, the losing team failed to score more than 14 points as these were pretty much defensive battles.

The Chiefs are 3-0 to the Under off a loss, while the Broncos are 7-2 to the Under on totals of 46 or lower this season. This game is shaping up to be another low-scoring affair as Denver’s offense likely won’t get things going against this stellar Kansas City defense.

Chiefs vs Broncos pick: Under 44 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.5.

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Kevin covers the NFL for Pickswise from sunny south Florida. He has been handicapping the NFL professionally since 2007, as well the NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, and college basketball. He looks forward to a profitable season at Pickswise.
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Top Trends
Money Line

The Broncos have won 16 of their last 19 games at home.

Game Totals

Each of the last 4 matchups between the Chiefs and the Broncos have stayed Under the total.

Point Spread

The Chiefs have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 matchups against AFC West teams.

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