Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks for Tomorrow, 11/06/25

Denver Broncos -9 over Las Vegas Raiders (-110)

Although I have never been a huge believer in the Broncos, I’m starting to come around. They are on a 5-game winning streak and have not yet lost at home this season. Bo Nix is following up his impressive rookie year with another stellar season, having accounted for 20 total touchdowns (17 passing, 3 rushing) while getting picked off just 3 times in the last 7 games (he previously had 3 INTs in the first 2 contests alone).

Most importantly, when it comes to this particular game, they are playing against the Raiders. Make no mistake about it – this team stinks. Head coach Pete Carroll’s squad seems to be getting worse as the season progresses, too. Las Vegas is 1-6 in its past 7 outings and its lone victory during this stretch has come against a lowly Tennessee outfit. The Raiders have lost by double digits 4 times already in 2025, including by 34 points to the Colts and by 31 to the Chiefs. They have won just 2 road games since Week 2 of last year. The visitors probably won’t come close to doing so on Thursday Night Football.

Under 42.5 (-102)

The combination of Las Vegas’ offense against Denver’s defense is a perfect recipe for the under to cash. In fact, the Broncos’ offense might have to do basically all of the work in order to take this game over the total. After all, it’s hard to see the Raiders doing much of anything. They got shut out by Kansas City in Week 8 and have scored in single digits on 2 other occasions in 2025. In a pair of regular-season losses to Denver last season, not once did Las Vegas reach the 20-point mark.

So far this year, the Broncos rank 3rd league-wide in total defense, 4th in scoring defense (18.4 points per game allowed), 6th in passing defense and 8th in rushing defense. They rank 1st in sacks by a country mile with 40 (no other team has more than 28). CB Pat Surtain II (pectoral) is out, but it hardly mattered during an 18-15 victory over the Texans this past weekend. Denver limited Houston QBs CJ Stroud and Davis Mills to a combined 191 yards through the air. The under is 3-1 in the Raiders’ last 4 overall, 7-1 in their last 8 on the road dating back to last season and 8-3 in the Broncos’ last 11 overall.

Geno Smith (LV) under 211.5 passing yards (-113)

Smith has been held to 180 passing yards or fewer in 4 of the last 7 games, including an inept 67 yards by the Chiefs last month. Moreover, expect the Raiders to run the ball as much as possible on Thursday Night Football. As heavy underdogs, they will want to shorten the game, keep the clock moving and limit the total number of possessions. That’s not to say they’ll be able to do it… but they’ll try. Despite using its 2025 first-round draft pick on RB Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas is getting next to nothing from the rushing attack. As a result, opposing defenses can drop guys back in coverage to focus on keeping Smith’s air attack under wraps.