Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 10/05/25

An interesting AFC matchup here as the Indianapolis Colts host the Las Vegas Raiders. The Colts have looked great so far to start the Daniel Jones era, although they are coming off their first loss of the season to the Rams. I thought Indy was the clear better team in that game though, and if it weren’t for some fluke plays like Adonai Mitchell dropping the ball as he crossed the endzone, they’d be entering this one at 4-0. Las Vegas has lost three in a row, most recently falling to a bad Bears team, and their only win of the year was an ugly one over the Patriots back in Week 1.

Jayden Daniels was out when they played Washington, and they got beat 41-24 by Marcus Mariota. Not only has Jones played the best ball of his career, averaging 8.9 yards per attempt, but the team is also well balanced with an equally efficient ground game. Jonathan Taylor is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and first-round pick Tyler Warren looks like a future star and is already leading the team in receiving. Geno Smith on the other hand can’t stop turning the ball over and taking sacks. He threw three more picks against Chicago last week, bringing his total for the season to 7, and he’s taken 12 sacks.

Las Vegas’ offensive line woes have also impacted their run game, as they used a first-round pick on Ashton Jeanty but he hasn’t had much room to run and is routinely getting hit in the backfield. Each time the Raiders have stepped up in competition so far this season and played an above .500 team, against the Chargers and Commanders (with Mariota), they’ve lost by double digits.

Raiders vs Colts prediction: Colts -7 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I am also playing the under here because I don’t have any confidence at all in the Raiders’ offense. Sure they scored 24 points last week, but that’s misleading. Geno Smith threw for just 117 yards, and has been missing throws all season. Ashton Jeanty finally had some success after struggling in each of his first three games, so I think Pete Carroll will want to keep things on the ground here given Smith’s recent poor play. Las Vegas’ defense is probably a bit better than they get credit for, and Maxx Crosby is a true game-wrecker. Last week Chicago scored 25 on them, but that was only because of Smith’s turnovers, the defense actually played pretty well.

They held the Bears to only 271 yards of total offense, and Crosby was making plays left and right. Indianapolis has a great home field advantage, and their defense has played much better in their two games at home this year. The Colts are giving up just 5.6 yards per pass attempt at home, and even though Daniel Jones has played really well I still think they prefer to be a run first team with Jonathan Taylor.

Raiders vs Colts pick: Under 48 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.

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