Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/05/25

NFL Week 5 provides an interesting AFC matchup when the Indianapolis Colts host the Las Vegas Raiders. The Colts have looked great to start the Daniel Jones era, although they come into this contest following their first loss of the season against the Rams. Despite the loss, I felt Indy was the clear better team in that game, and if it weren’t for some fluke plays like Adonai Mitchell dropping the ball as he crossed the goal line, they’d have a perfect 4-0 record. Las Vegas has lost three in a row, most recently falling to a bad Bears team, and their only win of the year was an ugly one over the Patriots back in Week 1. Jayden Daniels was out when the Raiders played Washington, yet they were beat 41-24 by Marcus Mariota.

Not only has Jones played the best ball of his career, averaging 8.9 yards per attempt, but the Colts are well-balanced with an equally efficient ground game. Jonathan Taylor averages 5.4 yards per carry, and first-round pick Tyler Warren looks like a future star — already leading the team in receiving. Geno Smith, on the other hand, can’t stop turning the ball over and taking sacks. He threw 3 more picks against Chicago last week, bringing his total for the season to 7, and he’s taken 12 sacks.

Las Vegas’ offensive line woes have also impacted its run game, as first-round pick Ashton Jeanty hasn’t had much room to run and has routinely been hit in the backfield. Each time the Raiders have stepped up in competition to play an above .500 team this season, against the Chargers and Commanders (with Mariota), they’ve lost by double digits.

Raiders vs Colts prediction: Indianapolis Colts -7 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I am also playing the under here because I don’t have any confidence in the Raiders’ offense. Sure, they scored 24 points last week, but that’s misleading. Geno Smith threw for just 117 yards, and has missed throws all season. Ashton Jeanty finally had some success after struggling in each of his first three games, so I think Pete Carroll will want to keep things on the ground here given Smith’s recent poor play. Las Vegas’ defense is probably a bit better than it gets credit for, and Maxx Crosby is a true game-wrecker. Last week Chicago scored 25 on them, but that was only because of Smith’s turnovers, the defense actually played pretty well.

They held the Bears to only 271 yards of total offense, and Crosby was making plays left and right. Indianapolis has a great home field advantage, and its defense has played much better in its two games at home. The Colts surrender just 5.6 yards per pass attempt at home, and even though Daniel Jones has played really well, I still think they prefer to be a run first team with Jonathan Taylor.

Raiders vs Colts pick: Under 48 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.

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