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Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Week 11 2025 for Today, 11/16/25

EverBank StadiumCBS
Chargers
Chargers
Today
Jaguars
Jaguars
WLWWW
Last 5
WLLWL
7-3Record5-4
5-5-0ATS Record4-5-0
5-5O/U Record5-4
Jacksonville Jaguars

Chargers vs Jaguars Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
JAX Jaguars +3.0(-115)

The Jacksonville Jaguars were dealt a huge blow this week, as their top pick Travis Hunter is sidelined for the season with a knee injury. He was placed on injured reserve 2 weeks ago, prior to their overtime victory at Las Vegas, but is now done until 2026. Jacksonville suffered one of the biggest meltdowns of the season last Sunday, blowing a 29-10 fourth quarter lead in a 36-29 setback at Houston.

The Jags are short home underdogs against the 7-3 Chargers, who picked up their third straight win in last Sunday’s 25-10 home rout of the Steelers. Los Angeles held Pittsburgh to 221 yards and the lone Steelers’ TD came with less than 3 minutes remaining in the game. The Chargers start Week 11 one game behind the Broncos for first place in the AFC West as L.A. travels to Denver in the season finale.

The Jags started the season 3-0 at home before dropping a 20-12 decision to Seattle one month ago. Jacksonville is 0-3-1 against the spread since beginning the season 4-1 ATS. The Jags have allowed 20 or fewer points in three of four games at EverBank Stadium, while the Chargers have scored 24 or more points in 5 consecutive contests.

This marks the 4th time this season the Chargers are playing in either the Eastern or Central Time Zone. In the first 3 games against the Giants, Dolphins, and Titans, all non-playoff teams, L.A. is 0-3 ATS – which includes an outright loss at New York. On the other side, Jacksonville has blown 2 road games with a 4th quarter lead at Cincinnati and Houston. The Jaguars rank 5th in the NFL in defensive passing yards allowed per game and will now face L.A.’s Justin Herbert, who owns the 2nd-most passing yards heading into Week 11.

The public will be all over the Chargers following their Sunday night domination over the Steelers. This is Jacksonville’s lone home game in a five-week stretch with games at Arizona and Tennessee coming up, so the Jags can get back on track with a win. Let’s grab the points with the home team and back Jacksonville.

Chargers vs Jaguars prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Kevin Rogers
Game Totals Pick
Over 43.5(-110)

Both Los Angeles and Jacksonville have been up and down from a total perspective overall this season. The Chargers are 5-5 to the over, while the Jaguars sit at 5-4-1 to the over. Los Angeles cashed the under in its first 2 road games, but the Lightning Bolts have easily drilled the over in its past 2 away contests at Miami and Tennessee. L.A. was riding a 4-game over streak prior to the under in last Sunday’s 25-10 victory over Pittsburgh on a 44.5 point total.

The Jaguars split their totals in the first 2 games, but went over in the following 2 games, followed by a pair of unders. In the last 2 weeks, Jacksonville hit the over against Las Vegas and Houston, as the teams combined for 59 and 65 points, respectively. In last Sunday’s meltdown to the Texans, the game hit the over of 38 going to the 4th quarter before Houston posted 26 points in the final 15 minutes.

Jacksonville is 3-1 to the under at home, not including the under against the Rams in London when the Jags were technically the home club. Teams are 6-2 to the over this season after facing Houston, who has allowed the fewest yards per game. Los Angeles has given up just 40 points combined in its past 3 games since getting torched by Indianapolis for 38 points in Week 7. The Chargers rank 4h in the NFL in yards allowed per game, while the Jaguars have scored at least 2 TDs in all 4 home games this season.

This total sits at 43.5, which is the 2nd-lowest total for Jacksonville in 2025. The Chargers have given up at least 20 points in 3 straight road games since yielding 9 points to the Raiders in Week 2. Let’s look at an over here between the Chargers and Jaguars.

Chargers vs Jags pick: Over 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5.

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Kevin Rogers
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Kevin Rogers

Kevin covers the NFL for Pickswise from sunny south Florida. He has been handicapping the NFL professionally since 2007, as well the NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, and college basketball. He looks forward to a profitable season at Pickswise.
@RogersPicks
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Point Spread

The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.

Game Totals

The Under is 4-1 in the Jaguars' last 5 home games.

Money Line

Betting the Chargers on the money line in all games this season would have shown a 114% return on investment.

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