Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers vs Patriots Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Wild Card Round for Sunday, 01/11/26

Gillette StadiumNBC
Chargers
11-6
Chargers
Sun Jan 11
Patriots
14-3
Patriots
New England Patriots
Google News

Chargers vs Patriots Guest Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
NE Patriots -3.5(-110)

There wasn’t much faith that the Bills would have their 5-year stranglehold atop the AFC East this season. The Patriots seemed like a long shot after a 4-13 record in QB Drake Maye’s rookie season, but New England brought in former LB Mike Vrabel as head coach. Vrabel helped flip that 4-13 mark to 14-3 and propel Maye to strong MVP consideration with 4,394 passing yards and 31 TD passes. New England overcame a 1-2 start, which included a mind-boggling loss to Las Vegas in the opener, to win 10 consecutive games before melting down in the second half against Buffalo. The strike against New England is 12 of its 14 victories came against non-playoff teams, as the Pats only beat the Panthers and Bills in consecutive games early in the season.

The Chargers travel cross-country to Gillette Stadium as QB Justin Herbert seeks his first playoff victory in 3 tries. After losses to Jacksonville and Houston in the last 3 seasons, Herbert and the Lightning Bolts try to break through after a 2nd straight 11-6 regular season. Los Angeles went through a 7-1 stretch from late October through Christmas before dropping the final 2 games to Houston and Denver. The Week 18 loss to the Broncos meant nothing since Herbert sat and the Chargers had no chance at winning the AFC West. In 4 games as an underdog with Herbert starting, the Chargers posted a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS mark, including a pair of victories over the Chiefs and a home win over the Eagles.

It’s interesting how the Patriots didn’t lose a road game, but dropped 3 games in Foxboro. New England finished 8-3 ATS as a favorite, as 2 of the non-covers came in close victories over Cincinnati and Atlanta. The argument against New England and its schedule is valid, but the Pats also defeated the Buccaneers and Ravens as underdogs, both of whom had a shot to win their divisions in Week 18. Herbert hasn’t won a playoff game, and they are going into a tough environment in the cold on Sunday night against a Patriots’ team that is hosting their its postseason game since 2019.

Chargers vs Patriots prediction: New England Patriots -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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Game Totals Pick
Over 46.0(-110)

These teams went in opposite directions from a total standpoint, as the Chargers were 11-6 to the under, compared to an 11-6 mark to the over for the Patriots. Los Angeles hit the under in each of the first 5 games before eclipsing the over in the next 4 contests. Meanwhile, New England closed things out with 9 overs in the final 11 games, while going 6-1 to the over in the last 7 contests at Gillette Stadium. The Pats scored at least 24 points in each of their final 12 games, including topping the 30-point mark in each of their last 3 home contests.

The Chargers were excellent defensively this season, ranking 5th in total yards allowed (285.2) and 5th in passing yards allowed per game (179.9). Los Angeles gave up 20 or fewer points in 9 of the final 10 games, as the one outlier came in a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville in Week 11. QB Justin Herbert eclipsed the 4,000-yard passing mark in each of his first 3 seasons, but has failed to reach that plateau in the last 3 years. Herbert finished with 3,727 yards, while tossing 26 TDs, his most since 2021.

The Patriots finished with 379.4 yards per game, good for 3rd in the NFL. It was an amazing turnaround after finishing 31st in the league last season in that category with 291.9 yards per game. It will be a tough task against this Chargers defense, but the Patriots have shown they can score and move the ball with Drake Maye running the show. This total has moved up to 46, and these offenses are capable of reaching this number on Sunday night at Gillette Stadium.

Chargers vs Patriots pick: Over 46 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Kevin Rogers

Kevin covers the NFL for Pickswise from sunny south Florida. He has been handicapping the NFL professionally since 2007, as well the NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, and college basketball. He looks forward to a profitable season at Pickswise.
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