Los Angeles Rams

Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Monday Night Football NFL Week 17 2025 for Monday, 12/29/25

Mercedes-Benz StadiumESPN
Rams
Rams
Mon Dec 29
Falcons
Falcons
WLWWL
Last 5
WLLWW
11-4Record6-9
11-4-0ATS Record7-7-1
8-7O/U Record7-8
Atlanta Falcons

Rams vs Falcons Best Bets

Point Spread PickBest Bet
LA Rams -8.0(-110)

In yet another heartbreaking loss, the 11-4 Rams looked like the better team for the majority of their Week 16 contest last Thursday. Los Angeles accrued 581 total yards and 26 first downs on one of the best defenses in the NFL, but their rival never gave up. Seattle benefited from a 58-yard punt return touchdown by Rashid Shaheed that brought them within distance late. Then an embattled Sam Darnold, who threw 2 interceptions in the rematch, took advantage of the opportunity and tied it up to force overtime. 

Even in overtime, Matthew Stafford and the Rams went right down the field to score a touchdown. The Seahawks answered, though, and then cashed in a victory with a 2-point conversion with only 3 minutes left in extra time. Like many of their losses this season, the Rams could have easily been the victor last Thursday, and we still consider Sean McVay’s program among the best in the NFL. This Monday night, they’ll have an opportunity to exact revenge.

There wasn’t anything particularly exciting or intriguing about the Falcons’ win this past Sunday, especially considering their opponent. Nonetheless, Atlanta earned their 2nd straight victory in Week 16, rallying and rushing for 152 yards on a proud Cardinals defense. The revival of Kirk Cousins continues, although it certainly came with some tribulation. Cousins lost a fumble early and threw an interception late in the contest, but ultimately, a consistent rushing attack and good enough defense kept the Falcons afloat. It’s worth noting that they only gained 4.7 yards per play against a defense that ranks 24th in advanced EPA metrics.

The Rams’ defense will look to respond after what they permitted last Thursday. As a team, they have not lost consecutive games all season. And after a loss, they’ve only won by margin. In 3 prior cases, they beat the Colts by 7, the Ravens by 14, and the Cardinals by 28. Two of those 3 games were on the road. A long trip out to Atlanta isn’t ideal when you’re a West Coast program, but the Rams can still win their division and capture the NFC’s #1 seed, particularly since Seattle has 2 very tough games remaining (at Carolina, at San Francisco). This number could be inflated even more and we wouldn’t look away. It’s Rams or nothing.

Rams vs Falcons best bet: Rams -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.5.

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Rams vs Falcons Pickswise Expert Predictions

Game Totals Pick
Under 50.0(-110)

At this point of the season, we have almost no trust in the Atlanta defense. A group that was once top-5 in almost every category at the beginning of its campaign, the Falcons’ defense has regressed more and more as the year’s gone on. They sit at a respectable 16th overall in advanced EPA metrics, but against the run they’re a lowly 27th, allowing a putrid 4.6 yards per carry. Against exceptional offenses this can be a real problem. For example, the Falcons allowed the 49ers to run for 174, the Colts for 323, and the Seahawks, who are not a top-tier rushing team (21st in rush yards per game), for 129. All 3 contests resulted in losses and plenty of scoring for their opponents (88 combined points). The Rams are prolific on the ground (9th in yards per rush) and through the air (3rd in yards per pass), so this sets up for another game where their offense can hum, with or without Davante Adams (early reports suggest he’ll miss Week 17).

The total will likely be decided when the Falcons have the ball, and we don’t have much confidence in Raheem Morris’ group in that regard, either. Kirk Cousins has had some nice games since he took over the starting role for the Falcons, but in every case, it came against cupcake defenses. When Cousins and company faced a top unit (Seattle in Week 14), the results were much different: 15 points, 274 total yards. 

Advanced metrics tell us that the Rams, despite their Week 16 mistakes, remain a top defense, ranked 6th overall and allowing just 19.9 points per game (also 6th overall). After last Thursday’s performance and considering what’s on the line, we expect far better results this Monday. A total this high suggests that both offenses will realize considerable success, but we can’t agree with that notion. Our projections have this closer to 45-46, so we’ll side with fewer points in this NFC affair.

Rams vs Falcons MNF pick: Under 50 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 49.

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Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
Read more about Chris Farley
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