Rams vs Panthers Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Wild Card Round for Saturday, 01/10/26

Immediately, several factors are working against the Carolina Panthers in this matchup. Before we get to these factors, we should say that home field advantage has proven to be a significant indicator of playoff success, at least since 2022. Over the past 4 seasons, home teams have gone 18-6 straight up. That being said, and with all due respect to the Carolina Panthers, that might be their only advantage.

That doesn’t mean Carolina can’t win this game. In fact, we’ve seen the Panthers play their best against some of their toughest opponents. One might remember a 30-0 statement in Week 3 after another predictable 0-2 start, a victory that suggested they might not be the same bottom-feeding program we’re used to. They followed with wins against Dallas, at Green Bay, versus Tampa in Week 16 to take control of their own destiny, and a seminal win in Week 13 against the very same Rams. They ran all over Sean McVay’s defense in Week 13, too, piling up 164 on the ground. 

We just have a hard time seeing the same result (or even close) in the Wild Card round. Matthew Stafford, currently leading the odds for MVP, had his worst outing of the year on that fateful Sunday 7 weeks ago. The former Super Bowl champion threw 2 interceptions at crucial parts of the game and lost a fumble on what should have been a game-winning touchdown drive. The Rams’ defense seemed to just take off work, allowing nearly 400 total yards (358) to the usually hapless Panthers. It was the worst we’ve seen LAR all season, which is why we’re confident we won’t see that again on Saturday.

Regression to the mean has a way of swinging back more vicious than it came, and in this instance, we think that’s a very plausible outcome. By every conceivable metric, the Rams are far better than the Panthers. In EPA metrics, the visitors have the 2nd-best offensive rating in the NFL. In the same category, the Panthers rank 26th. Davante Adams, their All-Pro wideout who led the NFL in touchdowns this season, despite missing the last 2 games, is expected to be back for this showdown. Add the retributive element of a rematch and the championship experience of the Rams’ leadership, and we’re anticipating a rare massacre of the home team.

Rams vs Panthers prediction: Rams -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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