Los Angeles Rams

Rams vs Panthers Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Wild Card Round for Saturday, 01/10/26

Bank of America StadiumFOX
Rams
12-5
Rams
Sat Jan 10
Panthers
8-9
Panthers
Carolina Panthers
Google News

Rams vs Panthers Guest Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
LA Rams -10.0(-110)

Immediately, several factors are working against the Carolina Panthers in this matchup. Before we get to these factors, we should say that home field advantage has proven to be a significant indicator of playoff success, at least since 2022. Over the past 4 seasons, home teams have gone 18-6 straight up. That being said, and with all due respect to the Carolina Panthers, that might be their only advantage.

That doesn’t mean Carolina can’t win this game. In fact, we’ve seen the Panthers play their best against some of their toughest opponents. One might remember a 30-0 statement in Week 3 after another predictable 0-2 start, a victory that suggested they might not be the same bottom-feeding program we’re used to. They followed with wins against Dallas, at Green Bay, versus Tampa in Week 16 to take control of their own destiny, and a seminal win in Week 13 against the very same Rams. They ran all over Sean McVay’s defense in Week 13, too, piling up 164 on the ground. 

We just have a hard time seeing the same result (or even close) in the Wild Card round. Matthew Stafford, currently leading the odds for MVP, had his worst outing of the year on that fateful Sunday 7 weeks ago. The former Super Bowl champion threw 2 interceptions at crucial parts of the game and lost a fumble on what should have been a game-winning touchdown drive. The Rams’ defense seemed to just take off work, allowing nearly 400 total yards (358) to the usually hapless Panthers. It was the worst we’ve seen LAR all season, which is why we’re confident we won’t see that again on Saturday.

Regression to the mean has a way of swinging back more vicious than it came, and in this instance, we think that’s a very plausible outcome. By every conceivable metric, the Rams are far better than the Panthers. In EPA metrics, the visitors have the 2nd-best offensive rating in the NFL. In the same category, the Panthers rank 26th. Davante Adams, their All-Pro wideout who led the NFL in touchdowns this season, despite missing the last 2 games, is expected to be back for this showdown. Add the retributive element of a rematch and the championship experience of the Rams’ leadership, and we’re anticipating a rare massacre of the home team.

Rams vs Panthers prediction: Rams -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick
Over 46.5(-110)

Their Week 13 matchup was a display of offense, but it wasn’t catalyzed by the Rams’ mistakes. Carolina never created points from turnovers. In fact, Stafford’s interceptions suggest even more points should have piled up in their previous battle, since LAR’s mistakes only stymied more production. These are all valid reasons for a relatively high total, the 2nd-highest of Wild Card Weekend, although the playoffs have a way of slowing games down. 

A total of 46.5 also isn’t drastically high considering that we expect the Rams’ offense to respond with ferocity. The market agrees, thus their -10.5 designation. The addition of Davante Adams is a drastic upgrade for an offense that might already have the #1 receiver in the NFL. Despite missing one game, Puka Nacua leads the league in receptions (129) and he’s 2nd in receiving yards (1715). Needless to say, with Stafford playing at an MVP level, we anticipate the Rams displaying massive positive regression against the 22nd-ranked Carolina defense.  

The real question is on Carolina’s side. Clearly, they figured something out in their Week 13 victory over the same enemy. They controlled time of possession (35-25) and were steady when it mattered — 7-15 on 3rd down and 3-3 on 4th. Their 358 total yards were their 4th-most of the season. In general, Bryce Young is a better quarterback at home, both in poise (4 interceptions in Charlotte, 7 elsewhere) and from an efficiency standpoint (66.1% compared to 62.1% on the road). Contrarily, he averaged just 156 passing yards per game in front of his fans.

This number is very sharp but a few ticks too high considering the matchup comforts for both offenses. It helps that Charlotte will present a mild, complementary environment for December football.

Rams vs Panthers pick: Over 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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Chris Farley

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
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