Rams vs Seahawks Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFC Championship Game for Sunday, 01/25/26
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Rams vs Seahawks Guest Expert Predictions
With only 3 games left in the NFL season, we will do our best not to regurgitate the same data points and factoids that have built up all year. By this point, you know who these teams are.
That doesn’t change the fact that the NFC championship game is wildly intriguing for many reasons. Los Angeles and Seattle are 2 of the biggest rivals in the NFL, neck and neck at the top of the NFC West for the last 4 months. Sunday will mark their 3rd meeting this season. The mutual familiarity certainly makes handicapping it a tougher gig. In short, there won’t be many (if any) surprises for the athletes or coaches that could provide an edge for prospective bettors. For example, the Rams have seen the nuances and vigor of the Seattle defense, as the Seahawks have seen the explosive, dynamic qualities of the high-octane Los Angeles offense. Neither will be caught off guard.
And if we add up some of the statistics from their previous 2 games this season, you’ll find they performed remarkably similar:
- Yards — Rams: 830, Seahawks: 829
- Points — Rams: 58, Seahawks: 57
- Time of Possession — Rams: 62:44, Seahawks: 63:63
- Plays — Rams: 138, Seahawks: 142
There is, however, a very clear edge at quarterback. Sam Darnold has completed 2 consecutive exceptional seasons as the thrower of 2 separate offenses. With the Vikings and Seahawks, he’s lost just 6 regular-season games the last 2 years. That’s extremely impressive. But the playoffs are a different story.
Darnold wasn’t needed much last Saturday, since the Seahawks’ special teams and defense created an immediate 17-0 lead. He threw the ball just 17 times, completing 12 of his passes for a humble 124 yards. Markets responded positively because they had no other choice, but that doesn’t mean last Saturday meant anything to determine Darnold’s playoff poise (or lack thereof).
In his only other playoff game as a professional quarterback, he was awful. Even more compelling, the loss was against the very same Rams. A budding defense that’s matured and shown more consistency this season (10th in total defensive EPA), the Rams rattled Darnold last January, forcing him into 9 sacks, a forced fumble and an interception. We’d argue he had better offensive talent in Minnesota (although his 2024 Minnesota squad and this year’s Seahawks offense are both 15th in total EPA), too.
Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay have been here before. As good as Seattle’s defense is, the Rams went up and down the field and gained 581 yards in Lumen Field just 1 month ago. Stafford has been unstoppable this season, which is why he’s the odds-on favorite (-450 at FanDuel) to win his first NFL MVP award. Seattle’s defense is scary good and their home-field advantage is real, but the Rams have championship experience and we know that they’re clutch in big moments. Darnold still needs to prove it.
Rams vs Seahawks best bet: Rams ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +100.
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The Rams’ best unit is their offense, and the Seahawks’ best unit is their defense. To our readers, I’m sure both statements will receive the proverbial “duh.” The greater point is this game’s total, which is curiously high at 47.5, is tough to evaluate when the Rams have the ball.
LA’s offense has been one of the best in the NFL without deviation (2nd overall in total EPA behind the Patriots, who had a far easier schedule). From our perspective, there is no better group in the league. In their last matchup, the Rams gained 581 yards. That reality hardly supports a narrative where Seattle’s defense will limit Stafford and company on Sunday, especially considering it was only 4 weeks ago. The Rams also outpaced the Seahawks in first downs (26 to 22) and trips to the red zone, entering scoring territory on 6 different occasions. This season, the Seahawks have given up fewer points than any other defense in the league (16.6), but against the Rams those numbers inflate (21, 37).
Of course, the Seahawks’ defense and special teams are also capable of scoring on their own or creating easy scoring opportunities for their offense. We saw that multiple times last week. The Seattle offense depends on its defense and big plays to score points; they rank as the most explosive in the NFL (1st in points per play). But LA prides itself at limiting big plays, 6th overall in the same category defensively. Either way, the essence of the “Darnold-led offense” hasn’t changed. A year ago in Minnesota, many of his statistics were average, as they are this season (13th in pass yards per game, 28th in interceptions per game), but explosive pass plays and an aggressive defense created a litany of scoring opportunities throughout the regular season. We doubt he’ll have the same opportunities on Sunday.
The postseason breeds more intense defense, and Darnold buckled badly against the same group twice the past 2 years. At the same time, while we expect Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams and others to get theirs, Seattle’s defense is too good to let the floodgates open the same way again. We’ll fade the market’s decision to place this total over the key number of 47.
Rams vs Seahawks prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.
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