Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/19/25

We’ve got two teams circling the drain here as the Cleveland Browns host the Miami Dolphins in Week 7. But while this might not exactly be a marquee matchup, that doesn’t mean we can’t find value. And in this one I think the value lies with the Dolphins. The Browns have been a downright disaster, most recently losing 23-9 to the Steelers, and Dillon Gabriel is simply not ready to be starting NFL games.

Remarkably, the Browns still haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game all season. Cleveland’s situation was made even worse by watching Joe Flacco light it up against the Steelers on Thursday night as the newest member of the Bengals. No matter what you think of Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, I can’t lay points with a team that’s just as dysfunctional that can’t crack 18 points through six games. Cleveland’s one win this season was a miraculous comeback/fluke where they beat Green Bay 13-10, so they were inches away from entering this one winless.

And as out on Tua as you may be, the Dolphins simply aren’t that same level of bad. A huge disappointment sure, but the Dolphins have at least been competitive where as the Browns have looked completely pitiful. Miami’s last two games were losses of two points and three points, and they led with less than 2 minutes to go in both. The week before that they beat the Jets, and they hung tight with the Patriots and Bills in their two games prior. The Dolphins have scored at least 21 points in five straight games, whereas the Browns can hardly get past midfield these days.

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns prediction: Dolphins +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I also think the under makes some sense here. Conditions are going to be tough with potentially extremely strong winds, and neither of these quarterbacks are built for that. Both Tua Tagovailoa and Dillon Gabriel lack arm strength and size and don’t deal well with the elements. And Cleveland’s offense hasn’t been able to do anything even in perfect conditions. Through two starts, Gabriel is averaging 4.8 yards per attempt, and he took six sacks last week against Pittsburgh.

The Browns’ defense has been strong this season, and Tagovailoa is going to be seeing ghosts with Myles Garrett coming at him. Cleveland hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game all season, and they’re favorites here, so I couldn’t possibly think about going over. Their games have almost always been sluggish and ugly, and I don’t see any reason to think that’s going to change here. Tua is averaging his lowest YPA since his rookie season, and he already has as many interceptions as he did in 11 games last year.

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns prediction: Under 36 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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