Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 09/07/25

At long last, we made it. The 2025 NFL season is officially underway, and one of the more intriguing Week 1 matchups will take place here in the AFC as the Indianapolis Colts host the Miami Dolphins. Indy made a bold move by installing Daniel Jones as their new starting quarterback over Anthony Richardson, and everyone will be waiting to see how Shane Steichen’s gamble pays off. I’m not too optimistic that Jones will be the new franchise QB Colts fans have been looking for since Andrew Luck retired, but I do think he’ll be solid enough in Steichen’s offense, and I’m jumping at the opportunity to fade the Dolphins at even money on the road.

Miami was a big disappointment last year, and they had a tumultuous offseason that included Tyreek Hill and Mike McDaniel publicly sniping at each other in the media. Miami traded away Jalen Ramsey and got Minkah Fitzpatrick, which you could chalk up as a wash, but they also lost safety Jevon Holland in free agency so their secondary got a big downgrade regardless. No matter what you think of Jones, he should at least be an upgrade over Richardson’s abysmal 2024 season where he had 50% more interceptions than touchdowns.

The Colts still have a lot of talent in the trenches with guys like Quenton Nelson and De’Forest Buckner, and first-round rookie tight end Tyler Warren should provide an immediate boost to the passing game. Indy was just 3-6 on the road last year but 5-3 at home, and I think they’ve got one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the league. Tua Tagovailoa often struggles in hostile environments, so give me the Colts here.

Dolphins vs Colts prediction: Colts -1 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We’ve got 2 inconsistent quarterbacks, 2 underrated defenses, and 2 coaches who both want to establish the run and let their ground games operate their respective offenses. If that’s not a recipe for an under, I don’t know what is. This is going to be Daniel Jones’ first game in a new system, while I’m bearish on Tua Tagovailoa’s outlook this season overall. The most intriguing threat in Indy’s passing game is tight end Tyler Warren, and he’s a rookie.

On the other side, Tyreek Hill flirted with a trade demand all offseason, and is now dealing with an oblique injury that has him limited at practice this week. Even if he ends up being a full go here, he’s now 31 and coming off his worst season as a pro since his rookie year. When you throw in the fact that he has this nagging injury, I’m not too worried about him lighting it up here.

Dolphins vs Colts pick: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.

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