Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 01/04/26

Gillette StadiumFOX
Dolphins
7-9
Dolphins
Sun Jan 4
Patriots
13-3
Patriots
New England Patriots
Google News

Dolphins vs Patriots Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
NE Patriots -10.5(-110)

The New England Patriots are still in contention for the #1 seed in the AFC as they prepare to host the Miami Dolphins in Week 18 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. New England needs a win and Denver loss to the Chargers in order to snag the top spot. The latter result is unlikely, but nonetheless head coach Mike Vrabel’s squad will be putting in a max effort. As such, my Dolphins vs Patriots pick is for the home side to win and cover. New England won a competitive 33-27 contest in the first head-to-head matchup this season, but that was in Miami and back in Week 2, long before the Pats became that they are right now. Keep in mind that they lost to the Raiders in Week 1 and to the Steelers in Week 3, so they were playing quite poorly at the time. Now they are 12-1 in their last 13 games, with only a 35-31 setback against Buffalo during this stretch.

There is little reason to expect another competitive effort from Miami on Sunday. Since Week 8, the Dolphins have not won a true road game over anyone other than the Jets. Tua Tagovailoa has been benched, so his season — and probably his entire career with this franchise — is in the history books. Quinn Ewers has been predictably mediocre in three NFL appearances, and “mediocre” is not going to cut it against a formidable New England defense. Give me the Patriots to win big.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots prediction: Patriots -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 45.5(-110)

It was a high-scoring affair (60 total points) when these 2 division rivals met earlier this season; more of the same could be in the cards for the rematch. My Dolphins vs Patriots pick is Over 45.5. Drake Maye completed 19 of 23 passes for 230 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions against Miami in Week 2, unofficially kicking off his MVP campaign. The former North Carolina standout is now the odds-on favorite to win that award, as he heads into the regular-season finale with 4,203 passing yards in addition to a 30-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Maye now faces a Miami defense that surrendered 45 points to Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 16.

Miami may be able to contribute at least somewhat to the overall total. I expect New England to build a sizable lead before perhaps losing some interest in the second half — especially if Denver is taking care of business in its game. Although Ewers is nothing special, he at least threw 2 TDs and zero INTs while leading his team to 20 points against Tampa Bay. More importantly, Ewers can simply hand the ball off to trustworthy running back De’Von Achane (1,350 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns). The Texas A&M product is listed as questionable due to a shoulder issue, but he should be good to go. It’s a slight lean toward the over for me.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots prediction: Over 45.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ricky Dimon

Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports -- just about any and all you can think of! -- and coaching tennis in Atlanta, GA. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me. For Ricky Dimon media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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