Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 01/04/26

The New England Patriots are still in contention for the #1 seed in the AFC as they prepare to host the Miami Dolphins in Week 18 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. New England needs a win and Denver loss to the Chargers in order to snag the top spot. The latter result is unlikely, but nonetheless head coach Mike Vrabel’s squad will be putting in a max effort. As such, my Dolphins vs Patriots pick is for the home side to win and cover. New England won a competitive 33-27 contest in the first head-to-head matchup this season, but that was in Miami and back in Week 2, long before the Pats became that they are right now. Keep in mind that they lost to the Raiders in Week 1 and to the Steelers in Week 3, so they were playing quite poorly at the time. Now they are 12-1 in their last 13 games, with only a 35-31 setback against Buffalo during this stretch.

There is little reason to expect another competitive effort from Miami on Sunday. Since Week 8, the Dolphins have not won a true road game over anyone other than the Jets. Tua Tagovailoa has been benched, so his season — and probably his entire career with this franchise — is in the history books. Quinn Ewers has been predictably mediocre in three NFL appearances, and “mediocre” is not going to cut it against a formidable New England defense. Give me the Patriots to win big.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots prediction: Patriots -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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