HomeNFLNFL PredictionsMiami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Monday Night Football Week 15 2025

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Monday Night Football Week 15 2025 for Monday, 12/15/25

Updated: 10:38 AM ET Dec 11, 2025

Acrisure StadiumABC, ESPN

Dolphins

8:15 PM ETMon Dec 15

Steelers

LWWWW	Last 5	LWLLW
6-7	Record	7-6
7-6-0	ATS Record	6-7-0
7-6	O/U Record	7-6

Dolphins vs Steelers Best Bets

Point Spread PickBest Bet

PIT Steelers -3.5(-110)

Reasoning

The Dolphins and Steelers both experienced success in Week 14, although one performance was undoubtedly more impressive than the other. At the Meadowlands, Miami benefited from an early Tyrod Taylor exit in the first quarter, so the Jets were forced to roll out 24-year-old Brady Cook, who had zero prior experience playing in the NFL. Needless to say, the Dolphins took advantage and ran the ball for 239 yards on New York, dominating time of possession and controlling the game after jumping out to a 21-7 lead in the first 15 minutes. For another week, Mike McDaniel, Tua Tagovailoa and company survived again, now 6-7 and still in the AFC playoff race. Last Sunday marked their 4th victory in a row, although it’s worth noting that their last 3 victories came against some of the NFL’s worst outfits (WAS, NO, NYJ).

For Tagovailoa, the win was more significant because it was in the cold. Previously, the former Alabama quarterback was 0-7 in NFL games in which the temperature hit 46 degrees or less. Monday night will present an entirely different scenario than what he experienced last week in Jersey.

The Steelers are coming off arguably their most complete game of the season, holding off the Ravens in Baltimore last Sunday. Baltimore gained 420 yards against Pittsburgh’s defense, but half of that production (210 yards) came in the fourth quarter when they were playing catch-up. Aaron Rodgers had a very clean game and despite his offense lacking a rushing attack (34 total yards), Pittsburgh’s pesky defense came through when it mattered. The Ravens were just 2-6 In the red-zone.

Pittsburgh is forecasted to be around 20°F at kickoff on Monday night, which is an element we absolutely hate for Tua. We have seen this story too many times, and it’s the type of game where TJ Watt and the Steelers’ defense can thrive. We also don’t trust the Dolphins defense, which ranks a lowly 24th and EPA per pass. This is Steelers or nothing.

Dolphins vs Steelers MNF best bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.

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Dolphins vs Steelers Pickswise Expert Predictions

Game Totals Pick

Under 41.5(-110)

Reasoning

The once prolific Miami Dolphins’ offense is a shell of itself at this point, although their rushing attack has held up their operation lately. Thanks to the talents of De’Von Achane, Miami has run for 197, 169, 164, and 239 in their last 4 games, all wins. The consistent production means they’re sitting at 7th in EPA per rush, but their passing attack is still far behind— 18th according to the same metrics.

Tua is also far too mistake-prone, ranked 31st in interceptions, which he tosses at a rate of 3.74%. The Steelers defense hasn’t been very good against opposing rushers, permitting 125.3 yards per game (21st), but they can also put all their focus on preventing the Dolphins ground attack. In short, we do not feel good about Miami’s chances when they have the ball.

This total will probably be decided when the Steelers have the ball, which is a little tougher to predict. Miami’s defense is average to below average, allowing 22.8 points (15th) and 334.5 yards per game (19th). The Steelers offense qualifies as equally sub-average, putting up 23.7 points (14th) and just 284.5 yards per game (27th). Rodgers is coming off one of his better games of the season, but the cold, bitter weather of Western Pennsylvania probably won’t help a 41-year-old quarterback, either.

The home spot for Pittsburgh and a wintry environment means we can only look one way.

Dolphins vs Steelers prediction: Under 41.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

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