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Hello Millions
Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 15 2025 for Sunday, 12/14/25

AT&T StadiumNBC
Vikings
Vikings
Sun Dec 14
Cowboys
Cowboys
LLLLW
Last 5
LWWWL
5-8Record6-6-1
5-8-0ATS Record7-6-0
7-6O/U Record8-5
Dallas Cowboys

Vikings vs Cowboys Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
MIN Vikings +5.5(-110)

The mystical JJ McCarthy experience continues. In Week 14 it was the good kind. Needless to say, NFL media and Vikings’ fans were losing trust in Kevin O’Connell before last Sunday, the guy who orchestrated Sam Darnold’s departure and put his stock in the former Michigan star. Many are still very skeptical, including yours truly. JJ McCarthy had enough good moments in his initial few starts to suggest maybe there’s something there, including a sterling fourth quarter comeback against the Bears in Week 1. But until last week most of his performances were of the bad kind, reminiscent of a kid whose confidence may have overshot reality. Last week the good version returned for at least one game, even if the rookie got a lot of help from his teammates. Minnesota jumped out to a 14-0 lead after their first two drives. The second drive was a brilliantly executed, 12 minute, 98-yard showcase of O’Connell’s ability to design the perfect offense for any quarterback. But the Vikings only gained 42 yards for the next two quarters following. In garbage time eventually capitalized on a few advantageous short fields. While we were mildly impressed by McCarthy in Week 14 (16-23, 163 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions), it doesn’t mean their offense is suddenly “figured out” again, nor do we trust the rookie to perform consistently at that level. 

Minnesota’s defense is less of a concern, 9th overall in total in defensive EPA and most weeks keeping their team in the game. They’ll need to be one of the best this Sunday.

The Dallas offense tripped up this past Thursday against the Lions, but we’re not going to fade the Cowboys because of one game. Week 14 was more about their opponent, a desperate team at home who rode momentum once they found it. Dallas’ offense still had its chances, and Detroit struggled limiting their production throughout the contest (417 total yards, 25 first downs, both out-pacing Detroit). Regardless, Dallas retains a top unit (7th in EPA per pass, 1st in yards per game). They’ll battle a top-tier defense on the other side, but the Cowboys’ consistent, exceptional play along their front (fourth overall in sacks allowed, 12th in yards per carry) can create a formidable challenge for the Vikings’ pass-rush (4th in sack percentage). 

On the other side, Dallas’ defense showed notable improvement in Weeks 12 and 13 but took a step back at Detroit, although even great defenses have had similar moments at Ford Field. Overall we still see an improving group, but McCarthy has another opportunity to look his best against a Dallas-defense that’s mostly been abysmal all season (30th in EPA per pass). We wanted to find ways to justify a bet on the Cowboys, but the Vikings are never dead with O’Connell steering the ship. And frankly, our power ratings don’t score these teams as grossly disparate.

Vikings vs Cowboys SNF prediction: Vikings +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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Chris R. Farley
Game Totals Pick
Under 47.5(-110)

This total is slightly above average, but not as high as many would have projected earlier in the season. Psychologically it’s very interesting. For some reason the market inherently trusts Kevin O’Connell, even if the larger sample size suggests we shouldn’t. We realize they had one game with Max Brosmer as their starter. Still, Minnesota ranks 30th overall in EPA per pass, a metric that McCarthy affected far more than his colleagues. Well, except Brosmer. They also score just 19.6 points per game. Their ground attack has been formidable at times but they don’t run the ball enough (27th in rush play percentage, 40.05%). The Cowboys will remain far below average defensively but they’re not being served some juggernaut, either.

Minnesota’s defense may be the most consistent of any unit. We’ve had our critiques of Brian Flores, who has moments that have us scratching our heads. Top coordinators and quarterbacks can navigate the puzzles he creates, but the truth is most fall victim. Flores is extremely creative in his schemes and blitzes more than any coach in the league (48%). While Dallas has been proficient at protecting Dak Prescott, there is nothing easy about this matchup. No matter which way you pitch it, 47.5 points is still a ton. For both teams, playoff hopes are on the line. We completely understand why markets think this could turn into a showcase of scoring, but from where we’re sitting a defensive battle is just as likely. We project this to end around 44, so we have no other choice.

Vikings vs Cowboys SNF pick: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.5.

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Chris R. Farley
Photo of Chris Farley

Chris Farley

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
@FarleyBets
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Top Trends
Money Line

The Cowboys have won 17 of their last 20 matchups against teams with worse records.

Point Spread

The Cowboys are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games as a favorite.

Game Totals

The Under has cashed in the Vikings' last 5 games.

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