HomeNFLNFL PredictionsNew England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 16 2025

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 16 2025 for Today, 12/21/25

Updated: 8:53 AM ET Dec 21, 2025

M&T Bank StadiumNBC

Patriots

8:20 PM ETToday

Ravens

WWWWL	Last 5	WWLLW
11-3	Record	7-7
9-5-0	ATS Record	5-9-0
8-6	O/U Record	8-6

Patriots vs Ravens Best Bets

Point Spread PickBest Bet

NE Patriots +3.0(-115)

Reasoning

For the first time all season, the Baltimore Ravens finally had an easy win in Week 15. Of course, Cincinnati seemed deflated from the very start of last week’s game, and a Joe Burrow-led offense was out of its rhythm, failing to score a single point. The Ravens deserve credit all around, they showed up and got the job done in a must-win situation, but it still doesn’t prove that their struggles have ceased. We also can’t dismiss that Baltimore still ranks a lowly 20th in total offensive EPA metrics, and they’re not much better on defense either (16th). Their secondary is even more concerning, ranked 19th in defensive EPA per pass and permitting 233.3 passing yards per game (26th). Even worse, only the 49ers sack the quarterback less (Baltimore ranks 31st, taking down the quarterback on only 4.14% of plays). We hate that for their matchup on Sunday night.

There is no reasonable evidence that suggests the Ravens are a better team than the Patriots entering Week 16. Baltimore’s edge is that they’re at home and that they have more experience in big-time matchups like this, a cyclical playoff participant under the era of John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson. But when it comes to this season, the Patriots are the better team in every category. Offensively they rank 6th in total offensive EPA and 12th in total defensive EPA, not to mention they’re coming off a 10-game winning streak, which was broken in Week 15.

Speaking of Week 15, we’re not concerned about the Patriots because of one flawed half. Many teams fall victim to the magic of Josh Allen, who engineered yet another second-half comeback last Sunday. New England showed its youth and inexperience last weekend; otherwise they’ve been one of the most consistent programs in the NFL. In fact, only the Seahawks and Rams, two other 11-3 outfits, have a better point-differential than head coach Mike Vrabel’s team (+7.6).

Especially since they’re coming off a loss, there’s simply no way we could bet on the Ravens here. Too many times we’ve seen their defense capitulate, and even in an easy win last week, their offense was rather pedestrian (317 total yards, 15 first downs). Meanwhile, the Patriots have been a well-oiled machine and one of the best ATS teams all season (8-5-1, 61.5%). If we’re getting a field goal with the visitors, we’re taking it.

Patriots vs Ravens: Patriots +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Patriots vs Ravens Pickswise Expert Predictions

Game Totals Pick

Over 48.0(-110)

Reasoning

This total is curiously high. Maybe part of that is because Baltimore will be unseasonably mild and calm on Sunday night, forecasted to be in the mid-40s — a perfect night for football. Perhaps it will become a perfect night for scoring, too. The market is certainly sending a signal by posting this above 47, a prime key number in totals.

Matchup wise, it makes sense. New England’s defense has mostly been very good this season — but it is also coming off a contest in which it got exposed by a dynamic quarterback. Arguably no NFL quarterback is as dynamic as Lamar Jackson, a true outlier athlete with a legitimate rifle of an arm to boot — very Josh Allen-like. The market is likely responding to the fact that New England’s schedule has featured very few top-tier offenses. In fact, according to EPA metrics, they Pats have only clashed with two top-15 offenses this season (BUF, PIT). Despite Baltimore’s transgressions this season, it can overwhelm any defense when functioning at a high level.

The Patriots’ offense needs no introduction at this point, nor does the missteps of the Ravens’ defense. Defensively, Week 15 was easily Baltimore’s most impressive showing all season — blanking the Bengals and holding Joe Burrow and company to only 298 total yards. Despite holding the ball for nearly two-thirds of the game (39:19), Cincinnati went 3-for-15 on third-down conversions, too. Still, we haven’t seen that version of the Ravens’ defense for any consistent stretch all year — it’s a group that permits 344.4 yards per game (23rd). Both offenses are in a good spot and I trust both teams to rely on their production in this huge Sunday night game. I can only look at the over.

Patriots vs Ravens prediction: Over 48 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ricky Dimon

Show Bio

Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports -- just about any and all you can think of! -- and coaching tennis in Atlanta, GA. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me. For Ricky Dimon media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

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