HomeNFLNFL PredictionsPatriots vs Broncos Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for AFC Championship Game

Patriots vs Broncos Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for AFC Championship Game for Sunday, 01/25/26

Updated: 8:07 AM ET Jan 22, 2026

Empower Field at Mile HighCBS

Patriots

3:00 PM ETSun Jan 25

Broncos

WWWWW	Last 5	WLWWW
16-3	Record	15-3
14-5-0	ATS Record	8-10-0
12-7	O/U Record	8-10

Patriots vs Broncos Best Bets

Point Spread PickBest Bet

DEN Broncos +4.5(-105)

Reasoning

The top-seeded Denver Broncos turn to backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham to knock off his former team to make the Super Bowl. Stidham starts in place of Bo Nix, who suffered an ankle injury in overtime of last week’s 33-30 divisional playoff victory over the Bills. Nix threw for 279 yards and 3 TDs in the win, but Denver needs to beat another AFC East squad for its first Super Bowl appearance since 2016. New England hits the road for the first time in the postseason after beating Los Angeles and Houston in the first 2 rounds.

The Patriots allowed 19 points and only 1 touchdown in the first 2 rounds and have given up 39 points in the past 4 games. New England improved to 14-5 against the spread this season and is in the road favorite role facing Stidham, who played 8 games for the Pats from 2019-2021. Mike Vrabel’s squad compiled a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS mark when laying points away from Gillette Stadium, beating the Titans, Saints, Bengals and Jets.

Denver won and covered in their 2 opportunities as a home underdog, defeating Kansas City and Green Bay. The Broncos posted a 4-1 ATS record in the dog role in 2025, including road wins at Houston and Philadelphia. Stidham is making his first start since the 2023 season finale against the Raiders, throwing for 272 yards and a TD in a 27-14 defeat. New England faced 1 playoff team on the road, defeating Buffalo 23-20 in Week 5 as 7.5-point underdogs. Yes, this is a tough task to bring in a backup quarterback with a shot to make the Super Bowl, but getting this amount of points with the Broncos at home is too hard to pass up. I believe there’s been an overreaction to Stidham taking over from Nix and will gladly roll with the home dog.

Patriots vs Broncos best bet: Broncos +4.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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Patriots vs Broncos Pickswise Expert Predictions

Game Totals Pick

Under 42.5(-110)

Reasoning

Denver closed the regular season hitting the Over in 4 of its final 6 games before easily cashing the Over in the 33-30 thriller against Buffalo last Saturday. The Broncos begin life without QB Bo Nix, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury as Jarrett Stidham makes his first start since 2023. The Patriots hit the Over against the Texans in Sunday’s sleet-storm, 28-16 on a 41.5 total, marking the 6th Over in the past 7 outings.

New England’s defense has been terrific in a pair of home playoff victories over the Chargers and Texans. The Patriots allowed an average of 224.0 yards per game, along with 4 field goals and 1 touchdown. After struggling to score 16 points against the Chargers, the Pats took advantage of 5 Houston turnovers to reach the 28-point mark for the 6th time in the past 7 games. Denver forced 5 turnovers in the win over Buffalo, aided by 2 interceptions and 3 fumbles. It will be unlikely that these teams will be on the positive side of all these turnovers once again.

The major question heading into the AFC Championship is what impact Stidham can make for this Denver offense, which bypassed the 28-point mark in 5 home games with Nix under center. Patriots QB Drake Maye completed 72% of his passes in the regular season, but that number has dipped to 58.9% in 2 playoff wins. The Chargers and Texans ranked in the top-5 in yards allowed per game in the regular season, while the Broncos finished 2nd. This should be a lower-scoring contest with Stidham running the show, and with the takeaways likely being cut down, look for an Under in Denver.

Patriots vs Broncos prediction: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 42.

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Player Field Goals Made Pick

A. Borregales (NE) - Over 1.5 FGs made(-135)

Reasoning

Kicker props have done great for us this season and as things begin to unwind, we going back to the well here. Andy Borregales seemed unfazed by the moment in his playoff debut against the Chargers despite being just 24 years old. He drilled all 3 of his attempts and all we need in the AFC Championship Game is 2 of them. Denver allowed the 2nd-most made field goals during the regular season. Part of that is definitely due to their elite defense at preventing touchdowns, but it’s also important to note the altitude in Denver and that kickers can give it a go from a little further there than normal. Sportsbooks become as sharp as ever when there’s only 2 games on Sunday, but this is the one market I believe has strong value. Let’s roll!

Josh Gayle (ThatGuyBets)

Team First Drive Results Pick

NE Patriots first drive: Field Goal Attempt(+350)

Reasoning

I love having a correlating longshot so we can remain focused on the main job at hand. The Patriots haven’t opened the game with a field goal drive since December 1 against the Giants. While Denver will have their hands full with Maye, this defense is legit and should prevent him in red-zone situations more often than not. I like the value of this, especially considering you can boost it to +564 odds with DraftKings!

Josh Gayle (ThatGuyBets)

Kevin Rogers

Show Bio

Kevin covers the NFL for Pickswise from sunny south Florida. He has been handicapping the NFL professionally since 2007, as well the NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, and college basketball. He looks forward to a profitable season at Pickswise.

@RogersPicks

Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

NE Patriots -5.5

Game Totals

Under 42.5

Player Rushing Yards

R. Stevenson (NE) - 60+ rush yds

Reasoning

Patriots vs Broncos SGP pick: New England Patriots -5.5 over Denver Broncos (-105)

It was a pyrrhic victory for Denver this past Saturday. Just moments after the Broncos finished off the Bills in overtime, head coach Sean Payton shockingly announced Nix’s demise. Just like that, it will be Jarrett Stidham under center for the home team. In his entire 6-year NFL career (which began in New England for 2 seasons), Stidham has played in just 20 games while completing only 59.4 percent of his passes with as many interceptions as touchdowns (8 each).

Denver’s offense already wasn’t very good, in part because J.K. Dobbins went down with a foot injury in Week 10. Now it has to face one of the better defenses in the league with a backup quarterback. As for the Patriots, they are looking good. After rolling to the AFC East title, they disposed of the Chargers 16-3 and then blasted the Texans 28-16. Give me the visitors to prevail by the necessary margin this weekend.

Patriots vs Broncos SGP pick: Under 42.5 (-112)

Championship games are supposed to be high on entertainment, but that is unlikely to be the case with this one. This will probably be a thoroughly unwatchable affair – especially if you are there in person and braving frigid temperatures (and, for Broncos fans, almost certainly watching their team lose).

Each club is led by its defense. In the regular season, Denver’s D ranked #2 overall, #3 in scoring, #2 against the run, #7 against the pass, #2 in yards per pass attempt allowed and #1 in sacks by a mile. New England’s defense was #8 overall, #4 in scoring and #6 against the run. After holding the Chargers to just a field goal in the wild-card round, the Patriots forced a ridiculous 5 Texans turnovers this past weekend. They are going to throw all kinds of looks at Stidham and should be able to dominate this game from start to finish.

Patriots vs Broncos parlay pick: Rhamondre Stevenson to record 60+ rushing yards (+157)

Stevenson appears to be New England’s RB1 for the playoffs. Through 2 games, the Oklahoma product has rushed 26 times for 123 yards to go along with 7 receptions on 8 targets for 86 yards. Backfield mate TreVeyon Henderson got fewer carries in the first 2 rounds (21) and gained just 52 yards in addition to making 2 catches on 3 targets for 7 yards. Henderson was productive during the regular season, but he is a rookie – so it does make some sense that head coach Mike Vrabel appears to be rolling with a more experienced running back (Stevenson is in his fifth season – he was on the Patriots when they reached the playoffs in 2021 with Mac Jones under center).

Stevenson amassed 53 and 60 yards in New England’s first 2 playoff games this year. He also wrapped up the regular season with a 131-yard outburst against Miami. I’m expecting a conservative, run-heavy game script for both teams on Sunday. As such, Stevenson should get lots of carries – and lots of opportunities to reach the 60-yard mark.

BET +675 NOW WITH

Ricky Dimon

Star Expert Prop Picks

Player Field Goals Made Pick

A. Borregales (NE) - Over 1.5 FGs made(-135)

Reasoning

BET +1.5 NOW WITH

Josh Gayle (ThatGuyBets)

Team First Drive Results Pick

NE Patriots first drive: Field Goal Attempt(+350)

Reasoning

BET +350 NOW WITH

Josh Gayle (ThatGuyBets)

Featured In

SGP

3:00 PM ETSun Jan 25

Patriots vs Broncos AFC Championship Same Game Parlay

Parlay Pick

3:00 PM ETSun Jan 25

Sunday's NFL Conference Championship parlay

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NFL Analysis

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