HomeNFLNFL PredictionsNew Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Week 18 2026

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Week 18 2026 for Today, 01/04/26

Updated: 1:53 AM ET Jan 04, 2026

Mercedes-Benz StadiumFOX

6-10

Saints

1:00 PM ETToday

7-9

Falcons

Saints vs Falcons Best Bets

Point Spread PickBest Bet

NO Saints +3.5(-115)

Reasoning

Both New Orleans and Atlanta have played well down the stretch although each of these NFC South rivals are eliminated from playoff contention. The Saints (6-10) are riding a 4-game winning streak, coming off a 34-26 victory at Tennessee. New Orleans grabbed its 3rd victory in the last 4 tries away from the Superdome after starting 0-4 on the road. The Falcons (7-9) have avoided its 10th loss for 3 consecutive weeks, beating the Buccaneers, Cardinals, and Rams. Atlanta jumped out to a 21-0 lead over Los Angeles before holding on for a 27-24 triumph on Monday night as 7-point underdogs.

In the first matchup in New Orleans back in Week 12, the Falcons took care of the Saints, 24-10 as 2-point underdogs. Veteran Kirk Cousins made his first start of the season in place of the injured Michael Penix, Jr., throwing for 199 yards and a pair of scores. The Saints couldn’t get any offense going with their lone TD coming on an interception return. New Orleans missed a pair of field goals and turned the ball over twice, as the Falcons seek back-to-back wins over the Saints for the first time since 2016-2017.

Atlanta has struggled in its last two opportunities as a home favorite, losing to Miami (34-10) and Carolina (30-27). The Saints began the season with a 3-8 ATS record, but stormed back with 5 consecutive covers. Shough has put together back-to-back 300+ yard performances against the Jets and Titans, but posted a 74.1 passer rating in the first matchup with Atlanta. Both teams want to finish the season with a nice winning streak going into the offseason, but let’s back the Saints with the points here to capture their sixth straight cover.

Saints vs Falcons prediction: Saints +3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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Saints vs Falcons Pickswise Expert Predictions

Game Totals Pick

Over 44.0(-110)

Reasoning

The first matchup in Week 12 at the Superdome between these NFC South foes easily finished Under the total of 40.5 in a 24-10 victory by Atlanta. The Saints’ offense was held out of the end zone, but New Orleans has averaged 31.5 points per game in the past two victories over the Titans and Jets. The Falcons’ offense has exploded over the last 3 weeks, putting up at least 26 points in wins over the Buccaneers, Cardinals, and Rams. Dating back to Week 10, Atlanta has scored more than 24 points in 7 of the past 8 contests, while going 6-2 to the Over.

New Orleans began the season 3-1 to the Over, but have been a strong Under team the last three months. The Saints are 9-2-1 to the Under in the past 12 games, but both Overs have come on the road against the Titans and Buccaneers. Since losing to the Rams, 34-10 in QB Tyler Shough’s first start in Week 9, the Saints have allowed an average of 17.2 ppg in the past 7 games. New Orleans has a tall task to slow down Atlanta RB Bijan Robinson, who ranks fourth in the league with 1,445 rushing yards. Robinson ran all over the Rams for 195 yards on Monday, but has not posted consecutive 100-yard rushing performances this season.

In spite of the Saints stepping up defensively over the last couple of months, let’s look at the Over after the easy Under in the first meeting. New Orleans has plenty of confidence in Shough to lead the offense, while Kirk Cousins has done a solid job in his return as starting quarterback for the injured Michael Penix, Jr. in Week 12. The Falcons have given up at least 24 points in each of their last 4 home games and more than 23 points in 6 of 7 contests at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Over 44 available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5

Show Bio

Kevin covers the NFL for Pickswise from sunny south Florida. He has been handicapping the NFL professionally since 2007, as well the NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, and college basketball. He looks forward to a profitable season at Pickswise.

@RogersPicks

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Point Spread

The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.

Money Line

The Atlanta Falcons are on a 4-game winning run.

Game Totals

The Over is 7-2 in the Falcons' last nine games.

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