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New York Giants

New York Giants vs New England Patriots Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Monday Night Football Week 13 2025 for Today, 12/01/25

Gillette StadiumESPN
Giants
Giants
Today
Patriots
Patriots
LLLLL
Last 5
WWWWW
2-10Record10-2
7-5-0ATS Record8-4-0
7-5O/U Record6-6
New England Patriots

Giants vs Patriots Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
NE Patriots -7.0(-115)

It’s fascinating to watch the Patriots storm and norm and find their new form so quickly, but we’re not that surprised, either. When the Titans fired Mike Vrabel, it was one of the more head-scratching front office moves we’ve ever seen. Clearly Vrabel knows how to build a winning culture. His quarterback has helped. Drake Maye is flirting with an MVP award in just his second season in the league, profiling as top-5 in his position in nearly every category, including touchdowns (21, 4th overall) and QBR (2nd). No quarterback has thrown for more yards through 11 games (3,130). The Patriots’ defense is also an ascending unit, ranked top-10 in total defensive EPA and with one of the best run-stopping groups in the NFL, keeping teams to just 87.7 rushing yards per game (2nd). 

Last week wasn’t as pretty as most performances, but Vrabel’s roster pulled through once again. The Bengals showed up to play, piling up 20 first downs and 307 total yards. The Patriots were just a little better, converting more on first downs (5-13), committing less penalties, and Maye was up to his usual shtick, throwing for 7.9 yards per pass. The Patriots have been fantastic at finding ways to win. Last Sunday marked their ninth straight victory.

The Giants were also up to their typical shtick in Week 12– leading against a very good team, only to blow that lead in the final seconds. Jameis Winston and the offense had an inspiring performance, with a few trick plays to boot. They gained 517 total yards on a good Lions’ defense, but it was the Giants’ defense that capitulated at the end. They couldn’t hold off Jared Goff and the Lions from clawing back into the game (NYG led 27-17 entering the fourth quarter), and in overtime their opponent made it look easy, scoring a touchdown immediately. Finally, New York’s front office decided to fire defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, a guy who surely hasn’t improved their flaws through 12 weeks.

If this was being played at East Rutherford, NJ, it might give us some pause. The fact that the Giants fired their defensive coordinator could help, but right now it’s unclear if their new star quarterback, Jaxson Dart, will return. This is Pats or nothing.

Giants vs Patriots prediction: New England -7 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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Chris R. Farley
Game Totals Pick
Over 46.5(-110)

As far as patterns go, there’s not much to glean from either program. The Patriots are a perfectly even 6-6 ATS in totals this season, while the Giants are slightly beating the market with overs (7-5 ATS). It is worth noting how limiting the Patriots’ defense has been since mid-October.

New England’s totals tend to inflate because of how efficient their offense is, a group that ranks 6th in total EPA with the second-highest-rated pass offense. But they do a great job at keeping their opponents’ production to a minimum. Since their matchup against the Saints on October 12, the Patriots have allowed just 17.9 points per game and 282 yards per game through their past seven contests. Both qualify as top-5 marks.

Jaxson Dart, who’s undoubtedly the biggest part of the Giants’ offensive improvement this season (15th in total EPA), is officially questionable (concussion) leading into Week 13. There’s a world where the Giants’ coaching staff wants to protect the young gun from further injuring himself and therefore risking the fate of the franchise. Whether Dart starts or not, the Giants have been able to produce plenty with either Dart or Jameis Winston under center. In those contests, New York has averaged 24 points and 352 yards per game. 

This total is hovering right below the key number of 47. That means markets and bettors are largely unsure how to feel about the production in this game, which is mostly because of the Patriots’ burgeoning defense. Either way, Drake Maye’s efficiency and their plus-matchup against the Giants’ defense combined with New York’s uptick in offensive performance has us looking at more points than the market projects.

Giants vs Patriots pick: Over 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.

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Chris R. Farley
Photo of Chris Farley

Chris Farley

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
@FarleyBets
Read more about Chris Farley
Top Trends
Point Spread

The Giants have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with better records.

Game Totals

6 of the Giants' last 7 games (86%) have gone over the Total.

Money Line

The Patriots have won 5 of their last 7 games at home, while the Giants have lost on 12 straight road trips

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