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New York Jets

New York Jets vs New England Patriots Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks for Thursday, 11/13/25

Gillette StadiumAmazon Prime Video
Jets
Jets
Thu Nov 13
Patriots
Patriots
LLLWW
Last 5
WWWWW
2-7Record8-2
5-4-0ATS Record7-3-0
6-3O/U Record6-4
New England Patriots

Jets vs Patriots Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
NE Patriots -11.5(-110)

The Jets secured their second win in a row in Week 10, but boy was it ugly. Really it was the Jets’ special teams that deserved the victory lap, securing a kickoff and punt return for touchdowns in consecutive first quarter possessions. Jumping out to a 14-7 lead after initially going down 0-7 at home, New York eventually scored a few more times, but they were also vastly out-gained and only tallied 169 total yards (Cleveland finished with 278). 

The Jets’ front office decided to sell three major pieces of their defense before the trade deadline last week, but it didn’t seem to matter very much. Cleveland only gained 4 yards per play and the Jets’ defensive line sacked Dillon Gabriel six times. Some of that was likely because of the Browns, who qualify as one of the NFL’s worst offenses, especially when they’re not in Cleveland (they average just 12 points per game as the road team). The Jets’ offense remains the bigger concern, and it’s still the main reason why the market has no trust in Aaron Glenn’s operation from week-to-week. The embattled first year coach has a much bigger challenge on Thursday.

Many sharp bettors took the Bucs -2.5 last week, assuming that Tampa would finally force the Patriots’ regression following their bye-week. Drake Maye played probably his most average game of the season (16-31, 270 yards), but New England still mustered multiple big plays that helped them maintain a lead. Perhaps most impressive was their defense in Week 11, holding off three Bucs’ drives when they were only up by one score in the fourth quarter. After a 69 yard touchdown run by Treyvon Henderson, the lead was too insurmountable and New England left with their seventh straight win.

Maye and his colleagues have been virtually perfect since the end of September, beating the spread in six out of their past seven contests. Eventually bettors will look to capitalize on a down spot for Mike Vrabel’s new-look squad, but this isn’t the week. The Jets have no explosive qualities on offense and back at Foxboro, we expect the home team to run away with this one.

Jets vs Patriots prediction: Patriots -11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley
Game Totals Pick
Under 43.5(-110)

The total was immediately bet down in this contest and at least a small part of that is because of the weather. Foxboro is forecasted to be near freezing and windy, making temperatures feel bitterly cold for a traditional AFC East rivalry. Most of this number’s degradation has to do with the Jets’ offense, or lack thereof.

Not surprisingly, the Jets are in the bottom-tier of NFL teams in nearly every advanced metric on passing, measuring 26th or worse in EPA per pass, passing touchdowns, and completion percentage. No team has fewer total pass yards (1526). 

That’s a clear problem against the Patriots, who rank top-5 or better in all the same categories. On the ground New York is more formidable, with metrics like 23rd in EPA per rush and the seventh most rushing yards in the NFL, but that’s also an issue against New England. The Patriots’ defense has been at its best against opponent ground attacks, ranking top-6 in defensive EPA per rush and allowing the second fewest rushing yards despite no bye-week yet (792). 

The Jets’ defense has not been good this season, but we like how fired up they played last weekend. That fire shouldn’t die against an AFC East opponent. We saw signs of a little regression in Drake Maye, whose next to perfect season (he now leads all odds to become NFL MVP) will eventually experience a hiccup or two, especially with lowered expectations against a rival they’re expected to clobber. New York’s lack of output should mean very few points, and we doubt New England could ease off the gas in this sleepy contest in a short week.

Jets vs Patriots pick: Under 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 42.5.

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Chris R. Farley
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Chris Farley

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
@FarleyBets
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Top Trends
Point Spread

The Jets have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games (71%) as an underdog.

Game Totals

The Patriots' last 3 home games have gone Over the total.

Money Line

The Patriots have won their last 3 matchups against AFC East opposition.

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