New York Jets vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/21/25

The New York Jets will look to pick up their first win of the season here in Week 3 as they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And they’ll do so with a new quarterback under center, as Tyrod Taylor takes the place of an injured Justin Fields. I don’t think there’s much of a downgrade at all going from Fields to Taylor, so I’m taking the points with the visitors here.

In their first game the Jets very nearly took down the Steelers in a game they led with a minute to play. Then in Week 2 they got beat soundly, but that was by a Bills team that looks like they could be the best in the league. This is a classic buy low sell high spot, as the Buccaneers are riding high off back to back wins to open the year. But Tampa is on a short week here after beating the Texans on Monday night, and it feels like a prime opportunity for a letdown spot off back to back last second finishes.

In Week 1, they won at the buzzer thanks to a missed Younghoe Koo field goal, and in Week 2 they won by a single point after a touchdown scored with 6 seconds to go. I love Baker Mayfield but he hasn’t actually played all that well, and he just averaged 5.7 yards per attempt in the win over Houston. The Jets may not win this one outright, but I think they’ll do enough to keep it within this hefty number.

Jets +6.5 at publishing.

I also like the under a lot here. Tampa is really banged up at the moment, particularly on offense. Two of their best players on offense Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs have been ruled out, and receiver Emeka Egbuka who has been pivotal in Godwin’s absence is now questionable himself. Last week against the Texans Baker Mayfield was sacked 4 times, and the Bucs only had scored 14 points all game before a last second touchdown.

On the flip side the Jets are starting a backup quarterback, and are going to want to keep things on the ground with Breece Hall here as much as possible. Tyrod Taylor hasn’t started a game since 2023, and he’s now 36. New York’s offense couldn’t get anything going last week as they put up just 10 points, and 7 of those came in garbage time in the waning minutes. It’s looking like their relative outburst in Week 1 had more to do with issues with Pittsburgh’s defense than anything they themselves did right.

Under 43.5 at publishing.