San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles NFC Championship predictions

When you trade for a guy like AJ Brown, this is the moment you need him to come through for you. Last week against the Giants marked the first time in 7 games that Brown missed this line. CeeDee Lamb had a 46-yard reception this past Sunday, but there were many deep shots taken against the 49ers’ secondary (4 total). On the season the Niners are giving up a pair of 20+ yard receptions per game and many can be directly attributed to CB Deommodore Lenoir. He has surrendered this line 3 times in the last 4 games and has been torched for 339 yards after catch on the year.  For Brown, he gets the weak link of the 49ers’ secondary and is averaging 84 ypg in 2022-23. I’m expecting to see Brown to be leaned upon to make big plays in the biggest game of the year. His standard line in 70.5 yards and this will likely be reached by kickoff. Get on this number while it’s still below 70. 1U.

Asking Brock Purdy to go into Philadelphia and throw the ball 30+ times is a tall task. In the two road starts for Brock Purdy, CMC saw 19 and 26 carries for 108 and 121 yards. This is not a coincidence. Shanahan will rely on McCaffrey to move the chains and take pressure off Purdy in the passing game. Last week against the Giants, it was easy for the Eagles to shut down Saquon Barkley and historically, it always has been. San Francisco represents an entirely different beast in terms of a run game; from their personnel on the offensive line to their playcaller Kyle Shanahan. There have been times this season where the Eagles rush defense, particularly the left side of that defensive line, have been gashed.

The Eagles rank 22nd overall on 1st down rush plays according to Football Outsiders and I believe CMC will be used often in that scenario. This line is the lowest CMC has seen since a meaningless Week 18 vs Arizona, previous to that we have to go back to December 11th to get a McCaffrey line in the 50’s. He’s averaging 68 y/g over the last 10. 1U

This line is below Hurts season average of 49.6 yards per game and below his average over the last 10 (58.5 ypg). Hurts did not need to run much in the last 2 games (both against the Giants), as last week was complete domination by the Eagles and the week prior had very little meaning in the outcome. Before that Hurts hit this line in 7 of 14 games. Last season vs the 49ers the Eagles lost 17-11, but Hurts got it done on the ground. He finished that game with 10 rushes for 82 yards. From a matchup perspective, the Eagles’ running backs will struggle to pick up chunk plays against this 49ers front 7 — and using Hurts legs on passing downs I believe is the secret to Philly winning the game. While only 1 QB has hit this line against the 49ers all season, we have seen some have success. Jarrett Stidham averaged 4.8 ypg, Geno Smith churned out 7.0 ypg and Dak Prescott most recently had 5.5 ypc. The difference between Hurts and those QBs are that Hurts will see volume to his rush attempts (already at 10.5). This line is 48.5 everywhere else and I believe will reach 50.5 by kickoff. I’m jumping on this early before the public runs this number up to an untouchable level.