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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Week 11 2025 for Today, 11/16/25

Highmark StadiumCBS
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
Today
Bills
Bills
WWLWL
Last 5
LLWWL
6-3Record6-3
5-4-0ATS Record4-5-0
5-4O/U Record4-5
Buffalo Bills

Buccaneers vs Bills Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
TB Buccaneers +6.0(-110)

In a week full of compelling matchups, one of the most interesting games of the week comes in Buffalo, where the Bills are set to host the Buccaneers in a game that could go a long way to decide the fortunes of both teams in terms of playoff seeding in their respective conferences. Both teams are coming off pretty demoralizing losses, with the Bills dropping a game to the Dolphins as significant favorites a week ago, while the Bucs lost at home to a red-hot Patriots team – which marked the second defeat in the last 3 games for Tampa Bay. While this would ordinarily be a spot where I look to back the Bills at home — especially with Buffalo coming off a very poor performance in Miami — I can’t quite get there with this number given the matchup at hand and how the injury report looks for Sean McDermott’s side.

For starters, the Bills offense almost entirely centers around the ground game under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, and we just saw Miami be able to successfully bottle that up last week. When the Bills can’t get ahead of the chains early, it becomes a lot harder for Josh Allen and company to consistently convert in obvious passing situations on 3rd and long. The Buccaneers have a solid matchup edge in this game given that they have a top-3 rush defense in the league per success rate, while also sitting at 4th in rush DVOA on defense. Tampa Bay’s weakness is defending the pass, but given that the Bills might be without Dalton Kincaid — who has really become Allen’s top target in recent weeks — Buffalo might not have many answers against a Buccaneers defensive front that likes to blitz and can even get pressure on opposing quarterbacks by only rushing 4 guys. On the other side of the ball, the Bills defense is extremely banged up after suffering a few more losses a week ago. With that in mind, even though Baker Mayfield has come back down to earth in recent weeks, the Bucs should be able to move the ball enough to stay within one possession in this one. Points could be at a premium here, so I’ll take a shot on the ‘dog.

Buccaneers vs Bills prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 available at time of publishing. Playable to Bucs +5.5

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Caleb Wilfinger
Game Totals Pick
Under 48.0(-110)

Regardless of which teams covers the spread in this game, all signs are pointing to a lower-scoring contest than what the market expects on Sunday. This total has come down a bit from the open, and for good reason. After all, the weather forecast calls for 15-20 mph winds, and that could make things extremely difficult for both teams through the air. As previously mentioned, the Bills offense is dealing with some potential key injuries in the passing game, and those issues could be exacerbated given the conditions at hand. We can expect Buffalo, who has the highest rush rate in the league. to keep the ball on the ground and look to grind out long touchdown drives. On the other side, Tampa Bay’s rushing attack doesn’t have much juice at the moment with Bucky Irving out of the lineup and Mayfield has come back to earth in recent weeks. With that in mind, the under is the only way I can look in this one.

Buccaneers vs Bills prediction: Under 48 available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5

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Caleb Wilfinger
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Caleb Wilfinger

Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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Top Trends
Point Spread

The Buccaneers have covered in 4 of their last 5 road games.

Game Totals

The Buffalo Bills rank 6th in points per game in the NFL.

Money Line

The Bills have won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with winning records.

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