Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 12 2025 for Sunday, 11/23/25

As of Week 12 the Bucs and Rams are heading in opposite directions. Los Angeles is off their second straight win over a talented divisional opponent, surviving Seattle in a 21-19 battle where their defense forced Sam Darnold, who’s been one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks, into four uncharacteristic turnovers. It was a less-than-stellar day from Matthew Stafford (15-28, 130 passing yards, two touchdowns) and the offense (12 first downs and 249 total yards). Still, it was another reminder of how complete and how well-coached the Rams are. They can also beat teams in myriad ways. Leading into this Sunday night, they rank 8th in total offensive EPA and 3rd in total defensive EPA metrics, a mark of one of the most talented and well-balanced programs in the NFL.

They also have a nice spot this Sunday night since it’s their second straight home game. The Bucs are in a much tougher position.

Tampa remains atop the NFC South mostly because of their rivals’ depressing results. It shouldn’t be forgotten that the Bucs, although early season darlings since they started 5-1, have lost against their most talented opponents. Their six wins are mostly against lowly or mid-tier competition (ATL, HOU, NYJ, SEA, SF, and NO). Obviously the Seahawks and 49ers would be the exception, although the latter was going through a terrible injury bug. Against better opponents (PHI, DET, NE, BUF), the Bucs haven’t been so fortunate. They also deserve an asterisk due to their own injuries, notably Bucky Irving and Hassan Reddick, who are both trending in the right direction leading into Week 12.  

Still, the Bucs’ recent performances haven’t been up to par, especially on defense. They’ve lost three of their last four games, all against top-ten offenses. In those contests they allowed 96 combined points. That’s not a great sign for this matchup, particularly since the Rams have very similar metrics.

The data suggests the Bucs may be over their heads in this battle. The market thinks so, too. And since Tampa has plenty of room to clean up with easy wins in a weak division, we wonder how urgent this spot really is. The Bucs will want to get off the schneid and will probably fight hard early, but the Rams are the more complete team, in a great spot, and should be able to score at will on the visitors.

Bucs vs Rams prediction: Rams -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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