Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/28/25

We have a battle of 0-3 teams in the AFC South as the Houston Texans host the Tennessee Titans, and the home team should be able to comfortably get their first win on the board. Houston has endured a rough start to the 2025 season but remained competitive against some very strong opposition, suffering narrow defeats to the Rams and Buccaneers. None of the Texans’ opponents have scored more than 20 points, so their defense is at least showing up — and that spells bad news for Tennessee. The Titans’ offense has struggled markedly thus far as Cam Ward gets adjusted to life in the NFL. He has managed just 2 touchdown passes and is averaging only 169 passing yards per game. That is unlikely to cut it against a Houston squad that has had success this season keeping Matt Stafford and Baker Mayfield in check.

While Houston’s offense has found things tough, it has come across some pretty red-hot defenses. The Texans now get to feast on a Tennessee team that has allowed 33 and 41 points across its last 2 matchups. The Titans have allowed the fourth-most yards per carry and the second-most rushing touchdowns this season, so they could be ripe for a punishing effort from running back Nick Chubb. Given Tennessee’s tendency to allow big scores and their ineffectiveness on offense, it’s hard to see them keeping this close on the road against a Texans team that is desperate for a win to get its postseason hopes back on track.

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans prediction: Texans -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s hard to have faith in either of these offenses right now based on what we have seen this season, but this number still feels like too much of an overreaction. With that in mind, I believe that gives us some value in taking the Over. For starters, the Titans’ defense has been punished over the past 2 weeks, allowing 74 total points. While Houston’s offense hasn’t set the world on fire, I do expect to see some positive regression out of CJ Stroud and Nick Chubb — and for them to have some success against this Titans team.

On the flip side, I have no faith in Cam Ward at all right now. However, he did show some improvement in last week’s loss to the Colts, completing more than 60% of his passes for 219 yards. They do also boast some solid players at wideout, including Calvin Ridley and Tyler Lockett, who have the ability to make something out of nothing even with a struggling QB. Each of Tennessee’s last 2 games have finished in the 50s and both teams have shown enough to suggest they can bounce back and combine to reach the 40s.

Titans vs Texans pick: Over 39 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.

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