Washington Commanders

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Week 11 2025 for Today, 11/16/25

Hard Rock StadiumNFL Network
Commanders
Commanders
Today
Dolphins
Dolphins
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Last 5
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3-7Record3-7
3-7-0ATS Record5-5-0
5-5O/U Record6-4
Miami Dolphins

Commanders vs Dolphins Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
MIA Dolphins -2.5(-115)

The NFL’s International Series will continue on Sunday with a showdown in Madrid, Spain between the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins. Washington was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender following last season’s breakout run to the NFC title game, but life comes at you quick in this league. The injury-plagued Commanders are 3-7 and find themselves once again without quarterback Jayden Daniels this time because of a dislocated elbow. They have lost 5 straight games, including a ridiculous 4 in a row by at least 21 points.

It is true that the Commanders seem cooked, but already this season we have seen cooked teams rise from the dead. Case in point: the Dolphins. Head coach Mike McDaniel (yes, he is still employed!) suddenly has his squad playing hard and actually winning football games. Miami has won 2 of its last 3 outings, scoring at least 30 points in both of those victories over Atlanta and Buffalo. The Fins were especially impressive during last weekend’s upset of the Bills, during which De’Von Achane erupted for 225 yards from scrimmaged and 2 touchdowns. Achane now faces a Washington defense that is #23 against the run (134.4 yards per game allowed) and gives up 4.6 yards per carry (also #23 in the NFL). I can’t put max confidence on this game because the Dolphins are…the Dolphins. But I like them to cover.

Commanders vs Dolphins prediction: Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 47.5(-108)

It’s hard to trust either quarterback that will be on the field for this contest. Washington’s Marcus Mariota is a serviceable backup, but he is hardly more than a game manager. The veteran has almost as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns (6) in relatively limited work so far this season, and the Commanders have scored only 29 total points in his last 2 starts. Meanwhile, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa leads the entire league with 13 interceptions and has thrown an absurd 9 in the last 5 games. That is a big reason why my Commanders vs Dolphins pick is under 47.5.

In large part due to Tagovailoa’s inconsistency, the Dolphins’ offense has been all over the place. In their last 4 contests, they have scored 30 or more twice and exactly 6 twice. Washington has not posted more than 22 points in a game since Week 6 and now has to face a Miami defense that just stymied reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen. I would proceed with caution whenever you are backing the under in a game that involves the Commanders’ defense, but this total is too high to go in the other direction.

Commanders vs Dolphins prediction: Under 47.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports -- just about any and all you can think of! -- and coaching tennis in Atlanta, GA. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me. For Ricky Dimon media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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Top Trends
Money Line

The Commanders have lost 7 of their last 9 games.

Point Spread

The Commanders have failed to cover the spread on 4 of their last 5 road trips as an underdog.

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