Seahawks vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Picks for Super Bowl 60 for Sunday, 02/08/26
Seahawks vs Patriots Guest Expert Predictions
The Patriots advanced to Super Bowl LX, but it wasn’t pretty. Right from the start, Drake Maye and the offense looked out of place. In the opening series, Maye nearly threw an interception that really should have been a pick-six. A fortunate fumble by Jarrett Stidham, forced by an opportunistic defense, created a scoring opportunity for New England despite only gaining 67 yards in the first half. In the second half, they opened up with an incredible drive (9 minutes and 31 seconds), but they still couldn’t cash it in to score a touchdown. From there, the weather took over, disabling both offenses from gaining significant yardage or putting any more points on the scoreboard. New England’s defense was impressive when it had to be, although Stidham and the Denver offense moved the ball when the weather was complementary, gaining 9 first downs in the first half.
Under the new regime of Mike Vrabel and their 2nd-year star quarterback, the Patriots are clearly a very good team or they wouldn’t be in the championship game. They’ve also had an extremely advantageous route to get there. According to many different metrics, the Patriots were given the easiest schedule in the NFL in the regular season. In the playoffs, they beat 2 hapless offenses that EPA metrics ranked in the bottom-10. In the AFC Championship, they faced a backup quarterback, yet still nearly lost. We respect and we are impressed by what the Patriots have done this season, but we’re still inclined to doubt purely because of how they got there.
On the other hand, we couldn’t be more impressed by Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks. The Rams brought an extremely prolific offense and Super Bowl-winning quarterback to Lumen Field, but it was Seattle’s defense that made the biggest plays in high-pressure moments. On a crucial 84-yard drive late in the 4th quarter, Matthew Stafford and his teammates were stymied just 6 yards from the end zone, a stop that ended up deciding the contest. Even better, Sam Darnold played one of the cleanest, most efficient games of his career (25/36, 346 yards, 3 touchdowns). He avoided mistakes, stayed poised, and converted for multiple first downs on his team’s final drive. Giving Stafford and the Rams’ offense less than 30 seconds, Seattle closed it out and outperformed one of the NFL’s best teams for the 2nd time this season. The Seahawks are perhaps the most well-balanced team in the NFL (and it’s shown).
We are huge fans of Mike Vrabel and 2 years ago thought it was clinically insane when the Titans’ front office decided to fire him. His coaching was New England’s edge in the AFC Championship game and we’re positive his Patriots will be back in the postseason for many years to come. At the same time, Seattle’s defense is extremely disciplined and effective in big moments. We trust them to rattle young Drake Maye. Meanwhile, Darnold is playing at the highest level of his career. We also trust Macdonald, who is clearly one of the league’s best and brightest young coaches, to have his boys ready. Furthermore, we expect the Seahawks’ offense and its many weapons to find success early and often, even if New England’s defense plays its best. Most importantly, Seattle has been battle-tested far more than New England, which will pay instant dividends in the most nerve-racking spot of the season. The matchup and the intangibles favor a runaway victory for the Seahawks.
Seahawks vs Patriots best bet: Seahawks -4.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.5.
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EPA metrics will tell you that the Patriots are the best offense in the NFL, but their slate of opponents certainly gives us pause. In the regular season, they only faced 3 defenses that ranked in the top 10 in defensive EPA per play. One of those defenses was the Browns, who are notably worse on the road (18 points per game allowed at home, 27 points per game away from home). In general, Drake Maye and his offense have had a red carpet rolled out for them. This is not their fault, but it also doesn’t provide the same confidence that we have in their opponent.
In most regular-season games, they were comfortably in the lead thanks to an upstart defense and less-than-stingy opponents. The playoffs have been a different story. In every postseason game, they battled a top-10 defense and the result has been obvious; they’re simply not as good against better groups, averaging just 18 points per game in 3 contests. Maye’s playoff statistics are also rather subpar: 33/56, (58.9%), 674 total yards (224 per game), 4 touchdowns, 4 turnovers and 19 punts.
On Super Bowl Sunday, the Patriots’ offense will face one of the NFL’s premier units. Last week, Matt Stafford and the Rams mostly had their way with Seattle’s defense, but that’s been par for the course in their rivalry. We don’t see anything remotely similar for New England.
Mike Macdonald’s roster plays with the same aggressive style that he coaches with, a group that’s 2nd only to the Texans in total defensive EPA. It’s nearly impossible to run on Seattle (3.7 yards per carry allowed, 1st overall) and their secondary holds opposing quarterbacks to a league-best 6.0 yards per pass. For a quarterback like Drake Maye, who has been brilliant in spots but simply hasn’t been challenged very much, an unfamiliar Seattle defense will be an extremely tough test.
Both coaches favor defense. Sam Darnold has played extremely well, but we’ve seen him freeze in big moments, and we certainly expect some freezing from Drake Maye. As exciting as it would be to predict a high-scoring battle, these are 2 programs with very little Super Bowl experience, which also favors defense. We suggest waiting on this total, since it will likely be pushed up before kickoff. Even at the current number, we project fewer points.
Seahawks vs Patriots prediction: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.
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Super Bowl 60 Odds: Opening Spreads & Lines for Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots
The Super Bowl matchup is set: the New England Patriots will go up against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, February 8 in Santa Clara, California. It may not have been everyone's pick when the 2025 NF...
