NFL Best Bets

New York has not been able to score the last two weeks, putting up 17 points after three straight games of scoring 20+ points. The Jets are figuring out if Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields will be the starting quarterback, while star WR Garrett Wilson is day-to-day with a knee injury. The Bengals have easily cashed the Over in all three home games, combining for 58 points or more each time.

Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 27 or more points in six consecutive games since giving up 16 points to Joe Flacco and the Browns. Now that Flacco is with the Bengals, the offense has exploded since getting shut out in the first half at Green Bay in Week 6. Cincinnati has scored 61 points in the past six quarters, capped off by the 33-31 last-second victory in Week 7 against Pittsburgh.

The Jets have played two true road games, hitting the Over in losses to the Buccaneers and Dolphins, while allowing an average of 28.0 points per game. In Taylor’s lone start at Tampa Bay, he failed to get the Jets in the end zone in the first three quarters before New York scored 21 points in the fourth quarter. Granted, one of those TDs came on a blocked field goal returned for a score, but the Jets finally busted out late before losing to the Bucs.

New York has done a solid job limiting opponents to an average of 197.1 passing yards, ranking ninth in the NFL. Star CB Sauce Gardner is questionable for Sunday’s game in concussion protocol, as he looks to play in Cincinnati for the first time in his career, where he played college football for the Bearcats.

The Jets have plenty of questions regarding injuries to key players in this game and don’t even know who the starting quarterback is. But this total is at 44.5 and we can see some points here with Cincinnati’s resurgence offensively and struggles on the defensive side.

Jets vs Bengals best bet: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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The Packers have been unimpressive now for four straight weeks. In Weeks 1 and 2, which feel like a century ago, Green Bay looked like they might have one of the best rosters in the NFL, anchored by their newest x-factor in Micah Parsons. But since two impressive wins at home, it’s been less than stellar. The Packers lost at Cleveland in Week 3, allowing Joe Flacco to score 13 unanswered fourth-quarter points. Then they tied with Dallas in overtime, then they barely got by the hapless Bengals and Cardinals. Jordan Love has been consistent, but that doesn’t mean it’s been anything above average. Through six weeks he ranks 13th with 1,438 passing yards and 15th with 10 touchdowns. Perhaps his greatest quality so far is he doesn’t turn over the ball, submitting just two interceptions entering Week 7.  The Packers eventually seem to find ways to score, thriving on third downs (1st, 49.33%), fourth downs (8th, 71.43%), and in red-zone TD-rate (5th, 72%). But they’ve also mostly faced pedestrian defenses. When they have faced above average defenses (CLE, AZ), it hasn’t been pretty (230 and 262 total yards).

The Steelers are a mirror image of the Packers offensively, with above average marks (25 points per game, 12th) and at their best on third downs (8th) and in the red zone (4th). The difference in this game is Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers undoubtedly cares a lot about this game. In the years to come he will be memorialized as a first ballot Hall of Famer because of his time in Green Bay, but he also still holds resentment and regret from his time there. He also gets to face his former coach, the same guy who he had plenty of sideline battles and drama with. Following a loss, we love the Steelers to show up for their quarterback, to wreak havoc on defense, and to expose a Green Bay program that’s been regressing for weeks.

Packers vs Steelers best bet: Steelers +3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.5.

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