NFL Best Bets

Heading into mid-November, not many people thought the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs would be sitting in third place of the AFC West at 5-4. The Chiefs travel to Denver as a road favorite against the division-leading Broncos. Kansas City has won five of its last seven games since an 0-2 start, but looks to bounce back after dropping an AFC Championship rematch at Buffalo, 28-21 prior to the bye week. The Chiefs have failed to cover in their last two opportunities as a road favorite, with their last victory in this role coming in Week 3 against the Giants.

The Broncos started the season at 1-2, but have pulled off seven straight victories. Five of the past six wins for Sean Payton’s team have come by four points or fewer, capped off by a 10-7 home triumph over the Raiders last Thursday. Four times in this stretch, Denver has trailed in the fourth quarter, including the ridiculous 33-32 comeback win over the Giants when the Broncos were down 19-0.

Denver has posted a 2-0-1 mark against the spread as an underdog this season, while getting listed as a home ‘dog for the first time since Week 6 of 2024 against the Chargers. In both opportunities last season, the Broncos lost to L.A. and Pittsburgh when receiving points at home. Since 2020, the Chiefs have been listed as a touchdown favorite or higher in nine of the past 10 matchups. In last season’s finale, the Broncos blanked the Chiefs, 38-0 as 11.5-point home favorites as most of Kansas City’s starters sat out.

Although the Broncos are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings with the Chiefs, many of those covers came as a heavy underdog. This pointspread is telling us that Kansas City is the right side here as a road favorite to bounce back from the loss at Buffalo.

Chiefs vs Broncos best bet: Chiefs -4 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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Last Thursday night the Raiders were part of one of the worst NFL games in history, and that’s not a subjective comment. The Broncos and Raiders each earned just 10 first downs. Combined they only gained 408 total yards, averaging just 3.2 (LV) and 3.9 (DEN) yards per play. It was a mess of a game, and frankly there’s not much we can glean from it. Sure, Vegas’ defense played well and held the Broncos to just 10 points and forced two interceptions, but Denver is also known to play down to their competition. Just ask the Jets, Giants, and Texans.

In totality, the Raiders’ defense qualifies as very average. They allow 24.4 points per game (20th) and 320.8 yards per game (15th), which we think will be a huge problem in their Week 11 matchup. It’s especially a problem considering how mediocre the Raiders’ offense is, a group that ranks 26th in EPA per pass and 32nd in EPA per rush.

The Cowboys are the more flawed defense in this matchup (30th in EPA per pass and EPA per rush), but they are a far better offense. Dallas’ last outing was their worst from an offensive standpoint, generating just 333 yards (far from poor but still well below their standards) and 17 points in a loss against the Cardinals. Even with that loss and regression, they remain one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL (378.4 yards per game, 4th). 

Coming off a bye week, the Cowboys’ roster had to endure more than the memory of defeat. Beloved second year defensive end Marshawn Kneeland passed away due to mental health issues just a few days after their Week 9 loss, heavy and unexpected news that Cowboy players and coaches had to contemplate throughout their break. And while it may seem distasteful to weigh the effect of a player’s death as part of a handicap, it is something that objectively occurred and we must consider. In this case, we feel strongly that the Cowboys, who are led by a quarterback whose brother passed away under the same circumstances, come out on absolute fire for their fallen comrade. 

Dallas is a team built by offense, although they made a splash by trading for Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson and star interior lineman Quinnen Williams before the trade deadline. Combined with their poor performance in Week 9, we project to see the best version of the Cowboys and the Raiders struggling to keep up.

Cowboys vs Raiders best bet: Cowboys -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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