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Tampa Bay and Carolina enter Sunday’s critical NFC South matchup tied atop the division at 7-7. The Buccaneers have slumped down the stretch, dropping 5 of their last 6 games with the lone victory coming by 3 against the Cardinals in Week 13. Tampa Bay visits Bank of America Stadium against a Carolina squad that lost on a field goal in the final seconds of last Sunday’s 20-17 defeat at New Orleans. Carolina led New Orleans 17-7 late in the third quarter before the Saints scored the final 13 points of the game.

The Panthers are 5-1 off a loss this season. In the underdog role, Carolina has posted a solid 8-3 ATS mark, including a 4-1 ATS record at home. In their last home game, the Panthers stunned the Rams as 10.5-point underdogs 31-28 in their highest-scoring game of the season. Carolina has scored 61 points in its last 2 games off a loss, but has also allowed 55 points in those victories.

Tampa Bay needs to get on track fast, as the Buccaneers control their destiny with 2 meetings against the Panthers over the final 3 games. The Bucs shouldn’t be in this position, as they lost to 2 teams at home that are not headed to the playoffs – the Saints and Falcons. In fact, the Bucs are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 games, but have not been listed as a road favorite in this stretch. Tampa Bay is 2-0 SU/ATS in 2 opportunities when laying points away from Raymond James Stadium, winning at Atlanta and New Orleans. In the past 10 matchups, the Buccaneers are 9-1 against the Panthers, and QB Baker Mayfield has not lost to Carolina since taking over in 2023. The trends point towards Carolina, but this looks like the get-right game for Tampa Bay to save its season, so we’ll lay the points with the Bucs.

Buccaneers vs Panthers prediction: Tampa Bay Bucs -3 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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For the first time all season, the Baltimore Ravens finally had an easy win in week 15. Of course, Cincinnati seemed deflated from the very start of last week’s game, and a Joe Burrow lead offense was out of its rhythm, failing to score a single point. The ravens deserve credit all around, they showed up and got the job done and they must-win situation, but it still doesn’t improve that their struggles have ceased. We also can’t dismiss that Baltimore still ranks a lowly 20th in total offensive EPA metrics, and they’re not much better on defense either (16th). Their secondary is even more concerning, ranked 19th in defensive EPA per pass and permitting 233.3 passing yards per game (26th). Even worse, only the 49ers sack the quarterback less (Baltimore ranks 31st, taking down the quarterback on only 4.14% of plays). We hate that for their matchup on Sunday night.

There is no reasonable evidence that suggests the Ravens are a better team than the Patriots entering Week 16. Baltimore’s edge is that they’re at home and that they have more experience in big-time matchups like this, a cyclical playoff participant under the era of John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson. But when it comes to this season, the Patriots are the better team in every category. Offensively they rank 6th in total offensive EPA and 12th in total defensive EPA, not to mention they’re coming off a 10-game winning streak, which was broken in Week 15.

Speaking of Week 15, we’re not concerned about the Patriots because of one flawed half. Many teams fall victim to the magic of Josh Allen, who engineered yet another second half comeback last Sunday. New England showed its youth and inexperience last weekend, but otherwise they’ve been one of the most consistent programs in the NFL. In fact, only the Seahawks and Rams, two other 11-3 outfits, have a better point-differential than Mike Vrabel’s team (+7.6). 

Especially since they’re coming off a loss, there’s simply no way we could bet on the Ravens here. Too many times we’ve seen their defense capitulate, and even in an easy win last week, their offense was rather pedestrian (317 total yards, 15 first downs). Meanwhile, the Patriots have been a well-oiled machine and one of the best ATS teams all season (8-5-1, 61.5%). If we’re getting a field goal with the visitors, we’re taking it.

Patriots vs Ravens: Patriots +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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