NFL Parlays

The Chicago Bears have won 7 of their last 8 games heading into a home date with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday afternoon. I’m hopping on the bandwagon, so my Bears vs Steelers pick is on the home side to win and cover. It is fair to say that the Bears have found their stride under first-year head coach Ben Johnson and second-year quarterback Caleb Williams. With Williams playing mistake-free football, D’Andre Swift balancing the offense by running the ball effectively and Johnson’s play-calling working its magic just as it did when he was offensive coordinator in Detroit, Chicago’s offense is humming. It is #4 overall (373.8 yards per game) and #8 in scoring (25.8 points per game). Williams has thrown only 4 interceptions to go along with his 16 total touchdowns (13 passing, 3 rushing).

Pittsburgh’s QB situation is far worse. On Sunday, the visitors will either be playing with a banged-up Aaron Rodgers or a backup in Mason Rudolph. Rodgers is questionable after sustaining minor fracture in his left wrist during last week’s victory over Cincinnati. It was announced on Tuesday that that injury will not require surgery. Whatever the case, neither Rodgers nor Rudolph inspires much confidence. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers’ defense is overrated. Everyone just assumes it is good since TJ Watt is on the field, but that is hardly the reality. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team is #28 league wide in total defense and dead last against the pass. Its 33 sacks are good for third most in the NFL, but keep in mind that Williams is a mobile quarterback who can avoid pressure for the most part. At home against an unspectacular opponent, I feel great about Chicago maintaining momentum.

Steelers vs Bears prediction: Chicago Bears -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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We have a fascinating NFL Week 12 matchup on our hands on Sunday, as the New York Giants head to Detroit to take on the Lions at Ford Field. This game isn’t all that appealing on paper, but the situational spot is pretty advantageous for the Lions. On the surface, Detroit looks quite vulnerable following a pair of poor performances against the Vikings and Eagles in recent weeks. However, the Lions are now back home and have a favorable matchup at hand against a Giants team that is one of the worst teams in football and dealing with injuries at multiple key positions heading into this game. The biggest question mark coming into this contest is the status of Jaxson Dart, who missed last week’s contest against the Packers with a concussion. The Ole Miss product returned to practice on Wednesday, which makes it very possible that he’ll start in Sunday’s game. However, given the fact that Dart likely won’t be running the ball all that much, it’s hard to quantify how helpful he’ll truly be in lifting an offense that is 20th in EPA per play and 25th in success rate. 

Despite the fact that they were just completely shut down by the Eagles stout defense a week ago, the Lions offense has been a well-oiled machine for the majority of the season – as Detroit sits at 5th in EPA per play and 4th in success rate. There are plenty of avenues for Detroit to score in this game, and it all starts on the ground for Dan Campbell’s group. That success running the football should continue against a leaky Giants defense that is dead last in both EPA per rush allowed and in explosive runs allowed. If the Lions are able to jump out to an early lead, that could spell major trouble for a Giants team that isn’t really equipped to play from behind given its current uncertainty at quarterback. I’ll lay the points with the home team in what should be a smash spot for Detroit. 

Giants vs Lions prediction: Detroit Lions -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Time is running out for Kansas City, even though the defending AFC champions have 8 games remaining. The Chiefs enter Week 12’s home showdown with the AFC South-leading Colts at 5-5, off a last-second loss to the Broncos last Sunday. Kansas City dropped 3.5 games behind Denver for first place in the AFC West, while the Chargers are wedged in between at 7-4.

Before we break down Kansas City’s recent breakdown, let’s not sell Indianapolis short. The Colts went from a quarterback controversy in the preseason to Daniel Jones taking over the position and playing like a Pro Bowler. Jones is 3rd in the NFL in passing yards with 2,659, which is 24 more yards than Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. Indianapolis won 8 games last season, but has jumped out to an impressive 8-2 start to hold a 2-game advantage over Jacksonville in the AFC South.

The Chiefs have been solid at home, going 4-1 at Arrowhead Stadium with 4 consecutive wins since losing in the Super Bowl rematch to the Eagles in Week 2. Kansas City’s 4 home victories have come by double-digits, including 3 wins by 17 or more points. All 5 losses for the Chiefs this season are by 1 score, while each of Indy’s 2 defeats are by 7 points apiece.

Two of Indianapolis’ 8 wins have come against teams with winning records, beating the Chargers and Broncos. The Colts are looking to sweep the AFC West with a victory over Kansas City, but the Chiefs have won 9 consecutive games off a loss of 4 points or less since 2021. Indianapolis has topped the 31-point mark in 5 of the last 6 games, while Kansas City has allowed a total of 24 points in its past three home contests.

Colts vs Chiefs prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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The New York Jets hit the road to take on the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC clash on Sunday. New York has made a change under center, as Tyrod Taylor will take over the reins from Justin Fields at quarterback. While Taylor might be a bit better than Fields at this point, it’s not significant enough of an upgrade for me to have any interest in the Jets here. New York is 2-8, and its only two wins came against helpless Bengals and Browns teams.

Sure, I suppose the Jets’ passing game can’t get much worse, but I don’t see any reason to believe it’ll get much better. Taylor has thrown 69 passes this season, and he’s averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt with 3 interceptions and 9 sacks taken. And at age 36, he doesn’t provide anywhere close to the same value that Fields does on the ground. The Ravens have been playing far from their best ball, and they’ve still managed to rattle off 4 straight wins. In the 6 full games Lamar Jackson has played this season, Baltimore is averaging 31.5 points and has scored at least 23 in all 6.

If it wasn’t for his injury he’d be an MVP candidate once again, and the Ravens’ defense is starting to play better after a slow start. After bottoming out against the Texans, they’ve now given up 19 points or fewer in 5 straight games, and 1 of those games was against a great Rams offense – so I think the resurgence is at least somewhat real. Real enough to hold the Jets in check I’d say.

Jets vs Ravens prediction: Baltimore Ravens -13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 14.

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The Chicago Bears have won 7 of their last 8 games heading into a home date with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday afternoon. I’m hopping on the bandwagon, so my Bears vs Steelers pick is on the home side to win and cover. It is fair to say that the Bears have found their stride under first-year head coach Ben Johnson and second-year quarterback Caleb Williams. With Williams playing mistake-free football, D’Andre Swift balancing the offense by running the ball effectively and Johnson’s play-calling working its magic just as it did when he was offensive coordinator in Detroit, Chicago’s offense is humming. It is #4 overall (373.8 yards per game) and #8 in scoring (25.8 points per game). Williams has thrown only 4 interceptions to go along with his 16 total touchdowns (13 passing, 3 rushing).

Pittsburgh’s QB situation is far worse. On Sunday, the visitors will either be playing with a banged-up Aaron Rodgers or a backup in Mason Rudolph. Rodgers is questionable after sustaining minor fracture in his left wrist during last week’s victory over Cincinnati. It was announced on Tuesday that that injury will not require surgery. Whatever the case, neither Rodgers nor Rudolph inspires much confidence. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers’ defense is overrated. Everyone just assumes it is good since TJ Watt is on the field, but that is hardly the reality. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team is #28 league wide in total defense and dead last against the pass. Its 33 sacks are good for third most in the NFL, but keep in mind that Williams is a mobile quarterback who can avoid pressure for the most part. At home against an unspectacular opponent, I feel great about Chicago maintaining momentum.

Steelers vs Bears prediction: Chicago Bears -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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We have a fascinating NFL Week 12 matchup on our hands on Sunday, as the New York Giants head to Detroit to take on the Lions at Ford Field. This game isn’t all that appealing on paper, but the situational spot is pretty advantageous for the Lions. On the surface, Detroit looks quite vulnerable following a pair of poor performances against the Vikings and Eagles in recent weeks. However, the Lions are now back home and have a favorable matchup at hand against a Giants team that is one of the worst teams in football and dealing with injuries at multiple key positions heading into this game. The biggest question mark coming into this contest is the status of Jaxson Dart, who missed last week’s contest against the Packers with a concussion. The Ole Miss product returned to practice on Wednesday, which makes it very possible that he’ll start in Sunday’s game. However, given the fact that Dart likely won’t be running the ball all that much, it’s hard to quantify how helpful he’ll truly be in lifting an offense that is 20th in EPA per play and 25th in success rate. 

Despite the fact that they were just completely shut down by the Eagles stout defense a week ago, the Lions offense has been a well-oiled machine for the majority of the season – as Detroit sits at 5th in EPA per play and 4th in success rate. There are plenty of avenues for Detroit to score in this game, and it all starts on the ground for Dan Campbell’s group. That success running the football should continue against a leaky Giants defense that is dead last in both EPA per rush allowed and in explosive runs allowed. If the Lions are able to jump out to an early lead, that could spell major trouble for a Giants team that isn’t really equipped to play from behind given its current uncertainty at quarterback. I’ll lay the points with the home team in what should be a smash spot for Detroit. 

Giants vs Lions prediction: Detroit Lions -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Vikings have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL this season at 4-6 with subpar quarterback play. Minnesota looks to bounce back from consecutive home losses to Baltimore and Chicago as the Vikings welcome the rival Packers to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. The Packers rallied past the Giants last Sunday, 27-20 to improve to 6-3-1 and sit one-half game behind the Bears for first place in the NFC North.

Green Bay QB Jordan Love briefly exited Week 11 with a left shoulder injury, but returned and threw the go-ahead TD pass to Christian Watson with 4 minutes remaining to give the Pack the lead. The Packers closed as 7.5-point favorites, failing to cover for the 3rd straight game, while falling to 1-7 against the spread in the last 8 games. The 27 points scored against the Giants eclipsed Green Bay’s total of 20 points from the previous 2 games combined in losses to Carolina and Philadelphia.

Minnesota tries to turn around its struggling offense after getting held to 19 points against Baltimore and 17 points in last Sunday’s two-point loss to the Bears. The Vikings look to finish road division play at 3-0 after winning at Chicago in Week 1 and stunning Detroit in Week 9. QB J.J. McCarthy threw a pair of interceptions and finished 16-of-32 for 150 yards against Chicago, as his interception total is up to 5 in the last 3 games.

The Vikings swept the Packers last season with both victories coming by 2 points each. Love is 1-3 in 4 career starts against Minnesota with 2 losses coming at Lambeau Field. In each of the last 2 weeks, Minnesota’s defense has limited both Chicago’s Caleb Williams and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson to less than 200 yards passing. Let’s go with Minnesota here as a road underdog against Green Bay.

Vikings vs Packers prediction: Minnesota Vikings +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.

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Time is running out for Kansas City, even though the defending AFC champions have 8 games remaining. The Chiefs enter Week 12’s home showdown with the AFC South-leading Colts at 5-5, off a last-second loss to the Broncos last Sunday. Kansas City dropped 3.5 games behind Denver for first place in the AFC West, while the Chargers are wedged in between at 7-4.

Before we break down Kansas City’s recent breakdown, let’s not sell Indianapolis short. The Colts went from a quarterback controversy in the preseason to Daniel Jones taking over the position and playing like a Pro Bowler. Jones is 3rd in the NFL in passing yards with 2,659, which is 24 more yards than Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. Indianapolis won 8 games last season, but has jumped out to an impressive 8-2 start to hold a 2-game advantage over Jacksonville in the AFC South.

The Chiefs have been solid at home, going 4-1 at Arrowhead Stadium with 4 consecutive wins since losing in the Super Bowl rematch to the Eagles in Week 2. Kansas City’s 4 home victories have come by double-digits, including 3 wins by 17 or more points. All 5 losses for the Chiefs this season are by 1 score, while each of Indy’s 2 defeats are by 7 points apiece.

Two of Indianapolis’ 8 wins have come against teams with winning records, beating the Chargers and Broncos. The Colts are looking to sweep the AFC West with a victory over Kansas City, but the Chiefs have won 9 consecutive games off a loss of 4 points or less since 2021. Indianapolis has topped the 31-point mark in 5 of the last 6 games, while Kansas City has allowed a total of 24 points in its past three home contests.

Colts vs Chiefs prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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This Week 12 matchup between the Seahawks and Titans is a pretty significant mismatch on paper, and it’s hard to see this imbalance not translating to the field. For starters, the Titans have plenty of issues, and now Tennessee is banged up on both sides of the ball. We won’t see Calvin Ridley this week, and the Titans may also be without Jeffrey Simmons – who is probably the most important player on the Tennessee defense. Now, an already struggling team has to take on a Seahawks side that is coming off an extremely frustrating loss to the Rams a week ago, in which Seattle outgained Los Angeles by nearly 200 yards and finished with nearly double the amount of first downs, only to still fall short thanks to 4 awful interceptions from Sam Darnold. Mike Macdonald’s team should be motivated to put a beating on one of the worst teams in football, and that’s exactly what I think we’ll see here on Sunday.

Coming into last week’s game, the Seahawks boasted what was arguably the best passing offense in football, and we can expect them to get back on track against a Titans defense that is missing some pieces up front and in the secondary. But the real advantage that the visitors hold in this game comes on the other side of the ball, where Seattle will pit its excellent defense (5th in EPA per play and success rate allowed, 2nd in EPA per rush) against a Titans offense that has been among the worst units in football all season long with rookie quarterback Cam Ward at the helm. We can expect Seattle to pin its ears back and get after the quarterback, and I’d be surprised if Ward was able to beat this secondary over the top. Lay the points with the Seahawks in this one.

Seahawks vs Titans prediction: Seattle Seahawks -13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.5

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The Arizona Cardinals have lost 7 of their last 8 games heading into a home date with the Jacksonville Jaguars during Week 12 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Once 2-0, the Cardinals are now 3-7 and aren’t even looking competitive. They have dropped 2 consecutive contests by at least 19 points. Arizona is only a slight underdog against Jacksonville because it is playing at home, but does that really matter? Probably not! After all, the Cards have lost 4 home games in a row – including to the lowly Titans. Tennessee (1-9) has not won a single other game this entire year. This is simply a fantastic time to fade head coach Jonathan Gannon’s squad, so my Jaguars vs Cardinals pick is on the visitors to win and cover.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, is playing solid football. Its worst loss since Week 2 is against the Texans, but even a 1-possession setback on the road in Houston is nothing to be ashamed about. The Jaguars are coming off a 35-6 beatdown of the Chargers this past weekend. It is true that the Bolts’ offensive line is in absolute shambles, but that is still an extremely impressive result any way you slice it. The Jags churned out 192 rushing yards, which bodes well for their chances of finding success against a mediocre Cardinals defense. This is a tale of 2 teams going in opposite directions, and I think that trend will continue on Sunday.

Jaguars vs Cardinals prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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Philadelphia has taken control of the NFC East race over the last month, winning 4 straight games to improve to 8-2. The Eagles are looking to become the first team to win consecutive NFC East titles since 2003 and 2004, when Philadelphia accomplished that feat. The Cowboys are waiting in the wings at AT&T Stadium, trying to climb back into the NFC playoff race after routing the Raiders on Monday night, 33-16 to move to 4-5-1.

Dallas is currently the 10th seed in the NFC and will look back at losses to Carolina and Arizona that will likely keep the Cowboys out of the postseason. All they can do is look forward but it’s not a pretty sight, as the Cowboys face the Eagles, Chiefs, and Lions over the next 3 games. Dallas is 0-3 this season off a victory, but the Cowboys look to change that trend after QB Dak Prescott threw 4 TD passes in Monday’s win at Las Vegas.

In the first matchup this season on opening night, the Eagles held off the Cowboys, 24-20 at Lincoln Financial Field. Dallas grabbed the cover as 8-point underdogs, while the teams combined for 3 points in the second half following a lengthy weather delay. Both Prescott and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts threw for less than 200 yards, the first of 6 games below 200 passing yards for Hurts this season.

The Eagles won both matchups last season by a combined score of 75-13, but Prescott missed both games due to injury. In 3 underdog spots this season, Dallas has covered twice in the tie against Green Bay and the Week 1 loss to Philadelphia. The Eagles are 7-3 against the spread and the lone non-cover in a win came against Dallas. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS as a road favorite and 7-2 ATS in this role since last season. Off last week’s huge win over Detroit, this is a spot to back the Eagles here against the inconsistent Cowboys.

Eagles vs Cowboys prediction: Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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It will be a showdown in the NFC South when the New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon. It would have been hard to believe if before the season someone told you that the Saints – even at home – would be favored over the Falcons in Week 12. But that is, in fact, the case. It obviously has nothing to do with the Saints, who have been predictably bad. The Falcons, though, may be the most disappointing team in the entire league. Their 5-game losing streak has them at 3-7 overall and now both quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and wide receiver Drake London are sidelined. Penix will miss at least the next 4 games due to a knee injury; London is out 1 week at minimum with a knee issue of his own. Kirk Cousins under center and throwing to a group of pass-catches that doesn’t include London is a recipe for disaster.

The Saints own an even worse record than their division rivals, but they are a respectable 2-4 in their last 6 contests. Signs of improvement – however slim – are on display. They disposed of Carolina 17-7 in Week 11 – the same Carolina team that just swept the regular-season series against Atlanta. Now the Saints are coming off bye, which is a huge advantage heading into this matchup. New Orleans has won each of its last 3 home games against Atlanta. Expect that streak to continue this weekend.

Falcons vs Saints prediction: New Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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As of Week 12, the Bucs and Rams are heading in opposite directions. Los Angeles is off their 2nd straight win over a talented divisional opponent, surviving Seattle in a 21-19 battle where their defense forced Sam Darnold, who’s been one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks, into 4 uncharacteristic turnovers. It was a less-than-stellar day from Matthew Stafford (15-28, 130 passing yards, 2 touchdowns) and the offense (12 first downs and 249 total yards). Still, it was another reminder of how complete and how well-coached the Rams are. They can also beat teams in myriad ways. Leading into this Sunday night, they rank 8th in total offensive EPA and 3rd in total defensive EPA metrics, a mark of one of the most talented and well-balanced programs in the NFL.

They also have a nice spot this Sunday night since it’s their second straight home game. The Bucs are in a much tougher position. Tampa Bay remains atop the NFC South mostly because of their rivals’ depressing results. It shouldn’t be forgotten that the Bucs, although early season darlings since they started 5-1, have lost against their most talented opponents. Their 6 wins are mostly against lowly or mid-tier competition (ATL, HOU, NYJ, SEA, SF, and NO). Obviously the Seahawks and 49ers would be the exception, although the latter was going through a terrible injury bug. Against better opponents (PHI, DET, NE, BUF), the Bucs haven’t been so fortunate. They also deserve an asterisk due to their own injuries, notably Bucky Irving and Hassan Reddick, who are both trending in the right direction leading into Week 12.  

Still, the Bucs’ recent performances haven’t been up to par, especially on defense. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 games, all against top-ten offenses. In those contests they allowed 96 combined points. That’s not a great sign for this matchup, particularly since the Rams have very similar metrics. The data suggests the Bucs may be over their heads in this battle. The market thinks so, too. And since Tampa has plenty of room to clean up with easy wins in a weak division, we wonder how urgent this spot really is. The Bucs will want to get off the schneid and will probably fight hard early, but the Rams are the more complete team, in a great spot, and should be able to score at will on the visitors.

Bucs vs Rams prediction: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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