NFL Picks

An NFC East battle will kick off the 2025 NFL season as the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles play host to the Dallas Cowboys, a team that was all over the news this past week. Micah Parsons, the now ex-Cowboy, is gone to the Packers, but life goes on for Jerry Jones and his franchise. After a long drama, analysts all over are predicting the demise of Dallas’ defense following the trade, with some advanced metrics (particularly “EPA,” or “Expected Points Added”) suggesting Dallas goes from best to worst without the gifted edge rusher. They also fell from 7 to 7.5-point underdogs on the spread, a significant margin considering how common 7-point finishes are.

On the plus side, Dallas overhauled their coaching staff, which may or may not bring dividends, including Brian Schottenheimer as head man (a questionable hire, to say the least) and Matt Eberflus, the former Bears’ coach who’s now out for career-vengeance, as their new defensive coordinator. In addition, they re-signed young studs in their front-seven, a group that was 2nd overall in sack percentage last season, and added veteran defensive end Dante Fowler Jr. Their offense remains their stalwart side. Former MVP front-runner Dak Prescott is back and we mustn’t forget that he led a Cowboys offense to many prolific seasons in years prior. He’ll have an exciting tandem at wide receiver in CeeDee Lamb and the newly acquired George Pickens, a duo that will inevitably cause nightmares for opposing defenses. Their run game has a big questionable tag over it, since they signed Javonte Williams following a few underperforming seasons with the Broncos.

The Eagles have fewer surprises. They lost play-caller Kellen Moore to the Saints (replaced by Kevin Patullo, who was their passing-game coordinator last season), but their offense is largely the exact same, a group that produced a top-10 passing attack and the league’s best ground-game in 2024. They’ll combat a Cowboys defense that was 31st in points and 28th in yards allowed per game, presenting a clear matchup advantage for the home team. If the Cowboys contend with their arch-rival on Thursday, it’ll likely be because their offense thrives. The Eagles lost 7 key players of their defense during the offseason (Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Brandon Graham, Bryce Huff, Oren Burks, CJ Gardner-Johnson and Darius Slay), but their roster was so deep in 2024 that their 2025 crew remains one of the best groups in the league, at least on paper. 

Despite the big spread, we can’t trust Dallas. Organizations are living things, and the Cowboys’ franchise has been through a rollercoaster of drama and controversy leading to Week 1. The Eagles are stable where it matters, they’re at home and they respond under pressure.

Cowboys vs Eagles prediction: Eagles -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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The return of Dak Prescott means the Cowboys have a chance. The All-Pro quarterback went down with a hamstring injury halfway through the 2024 season, but in the 3 previous seasons he led the Cowboys to at least top-5 marks in points and at least top-8 marks in yards. The addition of George Pickens makes the Cowboys’ passing attack that much more dangerous, a deep threat who can stretch opposing defenses. CeeDee Lamb is still their #1 pass-catcher, a rare athlete who got open even when he had lesser counterparts. And we haven’t even mentioned Jake Ferguson, a steady tight end who rounds up a talented group of pass catchers. We inherently trust that the Cowboys’ offensive line will do its part, too. Their offensive front has been their trademark unit for the last decade, churning out high-performing linemen every year. In short, we feel good about Dallas’ chances to put up around 20-24 points, particularly against an Eagles’ defense that lost so many integral parts this spring. 

On the other side, Matt Eberflus will get a chance to redeem himself in a big role as Dallas’ defensive coordinator, but he’ll face a terribly difficult test to initiate his tenure. The Eagles’ Saquon Barkley is one of the NFL’s most dangerous offensive weapons and he enters Thursday fresh, getting zero touches in the preseason. The same goes for Jalen Hurts and his 2 exceptional pass-catchers. Although this may cause some early rust from most programs, the core of the Eagles’ offense has played together for a long time now, many of them battling through multiple Super Bowls together. They’re also facing a defense that’s in flux, at best, and needs to find an identity before it clicks on all cylinders. And even if the Cowboys’ defense was in sync, we still don’t think they’d stop a completely healthy Eagles offense. With Philadelphia expected to be calm and clear Thursday night, we can’t expect anything else but another big total.

Cowboys vs Eagles best bet: Over 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.

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A new look Dallas Cowboys squad will take the field on Thursday Night, headlined by flashy wide receiver George Pickens. Along with Pickens, the Cowboys welcome a new run game and, more importantly, a new coaching staff. With CeeDee Lamb getting #1 corner assignments all season long, Pickens has all the makings of having a career year — presumed to begin on Thursday Night Football with a questionable Eagles cornerback room outside of Quinyon Mitchell.

As more than a touchdown underdog on the road, quarterback Dak Prescott is expected to pass a ton on TNF, ultimately feeding Pickens in a negative game script. Fanatics Sportsbook is leading the way in terms of offering the best price, but FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a 50% profit boost for Cowboys-Eagles — raising your Pickens anytime touchdown scorer from +220 to +330.

Let’s get weird on opening night. All eyes will be on the loaded Eagles offense, led by Saquon Barkley and Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts. As stated in our Pickens piece, the game script will heavily favor the Eagles. They have the highest implied team total and now get a Cowboys defense that traded away Micah Parsons. So, we’ll take a shot at Will Shipley finding the end zone at +800.

Shipley failed to carve out a role last season with Barkley having 345 carries in the regular season, playing behind Kenneth Gainwell and being a rookie. Nonetheless, he is listed as the #2 running back on the unofficial depth chart, in front of former Green Bay Packer A.J. Dillon — who was nearly cut in training camp.

DraftKings is headlining their boosts with a 50% touchdown boost for Thursday Night Football. That, along with them already having the best price for Will Shipley to find the end zone makes this a match made in heaven. Using your anytime touchdown boost for Shipley will give you +1125 odds — a worthy longshot to bring the NFL season in.

The 2024 NFL Offensive Player of the year is coming off well over 450 touches (482) when you factor in the postseason, and that’s not a number they’ll want him near again if the Eagles want to repeat. If the spread tells us anything, a 7.5 line in a divisional game to kick off the year is pretty big. Backup RB Will Shipley and new addition AJ Dillon should have a role early in the season to keep the miles off Barkley.

I like the under by itself if you can get 94.5 or higher, but getting this at nearly 3-1 on bet365 with the TD is too good to pass up. Other books are at +220 with his yards at 90.5/92.5, so I like the value here. If you can’t get this on bet365, just pivot to 1 unit on under 95.5 on DK or 94.5 on Fanatics Sportsbook, but nothing lower than 94.5. This is a reverse-correlation play that jumps the odds as we are betting on Barkley going under (negative) while scoring a TD (positive). It’s not as far-fetched as you would assume and it really ties into the game script along with managing Barkley’s workload earlier in the season.

If you do not have access to Bet365 based on your state, you can still get Dotson alt-lines on Fanduel’s new feature “Your Way”. Dotson is the clear-cut WR3 and now has a full offseason in this Philadelphia offense after being traded just before the 2024 season. I’ll buy a bit of camp hype on Dotson, who’s been praised for learning more of the route tree and building a rapport with Jalen Hurts this offseason.

If Dallas loads up to stop Saquon, as we all assume they will, Philly should be able to make them pay with a deep shot to Dotson. He had catches last season of 27, 27, 36, and 19; if you exclude the last game of the season where they rested starters, he’s in the 3-4 target range. I can see that slightly upticking to 4-6 this season, and if that is the case, this line is wrong. 1u across the alt-line mini ladder. If you’re skeptical of the alt-lines, I still like his over 7.5 receiving yards for 1u, which is widely available.

It doesn’t get more entertaining than a Week 1 battle at Orchard Park between the Ravens and Bills. Two of the NFL’s most exciting quarterbacks will battle again, their 4th regular-season standoff (Lamar leads the series, 3-1, while Allen leads their playoff series 2-0). The game is predictably the highest total of the Week 1 slate, meaning oddsmakers expect both offenses to be as explosive as ever. Coincidentally, the Ravens and Bills also share the top-two slots in our power ratings, both programs we forecast to face off again in the AFC Playoffs, perhaps 2 weeks before the Super Bowl. In any case, both outfits benefit from grandeur additions to their rosters entering Week 1. 

Buffalo signed defensive end Joey Bosa to an already talented defensive line, and while Amari Cooper is gone, they secured playmaker Joshua Palmer (584 yards on 15 yards per catch with LAC last season). They also re-signed James Cook, keeping continuity in support of an outstanding 2024 result (136.7 rush yards per game, 9th overall).

The Ravens brought in Jaire Alexander, making their secondary arguably the most talented in the NFL, and they recycle a defense that was one of the best (1st in opponent yards per carry/game, 8th in opponent quarterback percentage). The Ravens have no issue at the talent positions and were the league’s most prolific running team last season, and they also added veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who has defied expectations even at 33. 

Buffalo is a short favorite merely because they’re at home, but the spread suggests oddsmakers consider Baltimore as the more talented roster (home field advantage typically grants 2-3 points of line value, more likely 3 points at Orchard Park). The Ravens hammered the Bills 35-10 at home last season in Week 4, but then lost at Buffalo in the AFC Divisional Round last January (27-25). It’s the playoff loss that stands out more, since it was less than 8 months ago and the Bills were at home, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be the same result. The Ravens have revenge on their minds, and they have more continuity and depth on offense. Taking Baltimore even as a short underdog presents far more value.

Ravens vs Bills prediction: Ravens +1.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to PK.

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One of last year’s games went over this listed total and the other did not, but the latter was more because of Buffalo’s mistakes. Early last season, the Bills had yet to face an exceptional defense until Week 4. At the same juncture, Baltimore experienced a disgusting loss at home to the Raiders in Week 2, so they vowed improvement in their 2nd showing in Charm City. It was the wrong place, wrong time for a Bills’ offense that wasn’t ready for the Ravens’ energy.

In their playoff battle at Orchard Park, the Bills’ offense was the freight train we’re used to seeing, their game-to-game norm. Buffalo was one of the most explosive and productive offenses in the NFL in 2024, 2nd in points per game and points per play. Led by the incomparable Josh Allen, the Bills’ offense operates like a bowling ball, built off a dynamic running attack and a leader who can adjust on the fly and run or pass his way to first downs. It’s a terribly difficult equation for most defenses to figure out, particularly in Week 1 of the NFL season. In short, we believe offensive coordinator Joe Brady will have the Bills’ offense in top form very quickly.

Todd Monken returns in his 3rd year as the Ravens’ playcaller, a group that was either first or third in nearly every major offensive category. They also nearly doubled the Bills in total yards in both contests last season. Meanwhile, Buffalo is banged up at linebacker and two of their most talented cornerbacks are down; Tre’Davious White is trending towards out and first-round draft pick Maxwell Hairston is already on the injured reserve. 

We get it, it seems a little too predictable, but we’re not overthinking this one.

Ravens vs Bills pick: Over 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.

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The Super Bowl losers last season, the Chiefs, hardly seem like a program that’s ready to throw in the towel. Reports from camp indicate that Patrick Mahomes is ready for revenge, performing at an even higher level (is that possible?) leading into this season. Of course, this is only coming from biased sources, like local Kansas City beat reporters and the Chiefs’ coaching staff, but we tend to believe in the hype. Mahomes is a 3-time Super Bowl MVP and an incomparable quarterback, still the measuring stick in the current NFL product. Until he shows any signs of regression, we can count on the best version of Mahomes in Brazil. 

But the Chiefs are more than just Mahomes. They’ll be without Rashee Rice for the first 6 weeks of the season, and they lost veteran left guard Joe Thuney in the offseason, a major part of their pass protection. We have concerns about their offensive line, but we also trust that Kansas City will develop first-round draft pick Josh Simmons and build around veteran center Creed Humphrey. Kansas City also gets back a healthy Isiah Pacheco, All-Pro Travis Kelce, and they have bona fide playmakers in Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown. They’re largely the same defense, too, with some added depth pieces. And it’s the same unit that held the franchise on their backs when the offense fluttered last season. 

The Chargers might be the most unchanged team in the NFL entering 2025. Their biggest acquisitions were running back and first round draft pick Omarian Hampton, who will play alongside a banged-up Najee Harris (also an addition), and former Eagles right guard Mekhi Becton. Otherwise, this is a very similar roster and we expect similar results. The Chargers went from good to above average last season with a playoff berth, only to collapse in the Wild Card. Either way, a team led by Jim Harbaugh is a team to respect, particularly in year 2. 

The Bolts played Kansas City hard last season, just 7 and 2-point losses. Both were low-scoring, defensive games, but we expect to see some magic from a vengeful Mahomes on Thursday. Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ offense has upside, but they haven’t been exceptional in any regard yet (13th in points, 20th in yards per game last season). We’ll go with the reigning AFC champions to make a statement since they hold a clear edge on offense and, exponentially more important, the best football player on Earth.

Chiefs vs Chargers prediction: Chiefs -3 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Although we expect to see a prime version of Mahomes, it doesn’t mean the Chiefs will be prolific right away on Friday. We trust that the Chargers will bring the same ferocious defense that ranked 2nd in opponent points per game and red-zone success, marks they exhibited in their 2 games against their rival last year. Although they lost both meetings, the Chargers held the Chiefs to just 36 total points and just 2-5 from the red zone. Andy Reid is a master at game-planning offense, but we could say the same about Harbaugh’s defensive wits. This will be a cat-and-mouse minigame throughout the contest, and we expect the Bolts to win plenty of those battles. 

On the other side, the Chargers struggled mightily against KC’s defense last year. Guru Steve Spagnuolo returns to lead a Chiefs’ D that was top-10 in yards and points allowed, although we could argue they peaked against Los Angeles. In their first battle of 2024, Spagnuolo’s group held the Chargers’ offense to a pedestrian 224 total yards and just 4-13 on third downs. The Chargers didn’t improve much in the rematch, either (298 total yards, 6-13 on third downs). A rookie running back and a lot to prove beckons mediocre probabilities that they’ll come close to 20 points on Friday. 

Finally, travelling to Brazil can only complicate matters for each offense as they embark on their first meaningful game of the season, and Sao Paulo will be extremely humid (90-100% forecasted), which can gas out playmakers. This rivalry has been physical and low-scoring historically, a pattern we expect to continue.

Chiefs vs Chargers best bet: Under 45.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5.

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The 2 teams likely fighting it out for the NFC South title in 2025 begin the season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the division championship in 4 straight seasons as they look to continue that domination against the Atlanta Falcons. The Bucs are playing with double-revenge on their minds after losing twice to the Falcons in 2024. However, the one player who slayed Tampa Bay in each victory won’t be suiting up as veteran QB Kirk Cousins has been replaced by last season’s 7th overall draft pick, Michael Penix, Jr. Cousins threw 4 touchdown passes in each of the 2 victories over Tampa Bay, but Penix will be given the opportunity to lead Atlanta’s offense this season. Penix started the final 3 games of last season, beating the Giants at home before losing consecutive overtime contests to the Commanders and Panthers. In his 3 starts, the University of Washington standout was intercepted once in each game, while throwing for a career-high 312 yards in the Week 18 home defeat to Carolina.

Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield has eclipsed the 4,000-yard passing mark twice in his career, coming in both seasons with the Buccaneers. Following a 4,044-yard performance in 2023, Mayfield topped that number by tossing 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns to lead Tampa Bay to 10 victories in 2024. The Bucs were profitable away from Raymond James Stadium last season, putting together a 5-3 straight-up and against the spread mark. Tampa Bay won 3 of 4 games as a road favorite with the lone loss coming at Dallas in Week 16.

The Falcons compiled a 3-6 ATS mark at home, including a defeat in their only opportunity as an underdog against the Chiefs in a Week 3 Sunday Night Football setback, 22-17. Penix looks to be the future of this Falcons’ franchise, facing the Bucs for the first time. After Cousins had his way with Tampa Bay twice last season, the Bucs should be thrilled to see another face under center for Atlanta.

Bucs vs Falcons best bet: Buccaneers -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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The Falcons captured both matchups with the Bucs last season in high-scoring affairs. Atlanta stunned Tampa Bay in a 36-30 home triumph as 2.5-point favorites in overtime, led by QB Kirk Cousins torching the Bucs for 509 passing yards and 4 touchdowns. In the 2nd meeting at Raymond James Stadium, the Falcons took care of the Bucs again, 31-26, as 1.5-point favorites. Cousins threw 4 more touchdowns, while Tampa Bay committed 3 turnovers in the defeat. Both those games easily cashed the Over as the Thursday night shootout closed at a measly 43 points. The 2nd game was adjusted up to 48 points, as a 27-point 2nd quarter was the driving force to help the Over once again.

Sunday’s total falls in between at 46.5 points in the first outing for Michael Penix, Jr. as the permanent starter for Atlanta. In the final 3 games of last season, after Penix took over for Cousins, the Falcons scored 34, 24, and 38 points. The last 2 games against Washington and Carolina hit the Over, but that also had to do with the Falcons’ defense allowing 30 points to the Commanders and 44 to the Panthers. The Buccaneers were a high-scoring team on the road last season, resulting in the Over cashing in 6 of 8 games away from Raymond James Stadium. In each of the final 7 away contests, Tampa Bay scored at least 24 points, while all 3 games against NFC South opponents went Over.

However, the Falcons were 6-3 to the Under at home, which included 4 games of scoring 17 points or less. There was plenty of inconsistency with the Atlanta offense last season, as the Falcons had the quarterback controversy hanging over their head with the change to Penix in December. Following the 2 shootouts in 2024, this one will likely revert in the opener and be a lower-scoring affair between these NFC South rivals.

Buccaneers vs Falcons prediction: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.

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In one of the more intriguing matchups of Week 1, NFC North rivals will clash in the Windy City and needless to say, both fanbases have sky-high expectations. Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings enter the 2025 season without the quarterback who led them to a 14-3 record. Of course, their defense was a huge part of that, too. They allowed the fewest points in the NFL (19.9 per game) and they were top-2 in stifling opponents on 3rd and 4th down. Led by one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL, Brian Flores returns with an even more talented unit in 2025, adding veteran players like defensive linemen Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen and cornerbacks Jeff Okudah and Isaiah Rodgers. The question remains at quarterback, where newcomer JJ McCarthy will finally suit up for a meaningful game after looking very crisp in 2 preseason outings. O’Connell is famous for rearing QBs and setting them up for success, as we saw last year with Sam Darnold, who suddenly looked like a star. Still, we have reservations that they can replicate 2024’s success. Either way, Minnesota’s offense is as talented as ever, although WR2 Jordan Addison will start the season under a suspension, missing the first 3 games.

The Bears are, once again, one of the most improved teams in the NFL. Their offensive line is officially elite, at least on paper, since they nabbed longtime Kansas City left guard Joe Thuney, arguably the best pass-protector in the NFL, center Drew Dalman (formerly ATL), and right guard Jonah Jackson (formerly DET, LAR), who are both exceptional at their position. They needed it, since their 2024 #1 pick Caleb Williams was the most sacked QB in the NFL last season. They also brought in Grady Jarrett to aid a pass-rush that was mid last year, and new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, who should have plenty of motivation to prove his worth after getting ousted in New Orleans.

The biggest change for Chicago is their head coach. Offensive guru and the mastermind behind Detroit’s explosive offense the last few seasons, Ben Johnson joins the Bears in hopes of catalyzing Caleb’s performance. The Bears’ 2nd-year QB showed off why he was one of the most touted #1 draft picks ever, making one clutch play after another in numerous big games, despite very shallow protection and a shaky playcaller. We have no doubt that Johnson will bring out the best in the USC legend and the skill players around him, but the question is: how soon? 

Additionally, the Bears’ defense is a work-in-progress, while Minnesota brings a proven, aggressive group that terrorized Williams last year. McCarthy is brand new, too, but O’Connell is not, and he knows how to operationalize a winning program in Minnesota. We’ll go with the road team to prevail.

Vikings vs Bears prediction: Vikings -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Whether the total goes over the listed number will be up to the Vikings’ offense and the Bears’ defense, 2 groups that we’re more unsure of. Theoretically, Chicago’s defense has a good matchup here, since their pedestrian run resistance (last season they were 27th in yards per carry/game allowed) is battling a Vikings’ ground attack that was lackluster in 2024 (24th in yards per carry, 19th in yards per game). Minnesota thrived last season against the Bears’ defense, although it was mostly through the air. Darnold threw for 543 yards and the Vikings put up 60 points in 2 wins. We suspect Minnesota will lean more on their rushing attack in JJ McCarthy’s first start, especially since their offensive line is healthy and upgraded with an exciting new left guard in Donovan Jackson, the 24th overall pick this year. As McCarthy settles in, we expect a back-and-forth, clumsy battle between these 2 units.

The others are more predictable. Caleb Williams is a generational talent who can make plays happen even when he’s harassed by the NFL’s best defenses; we saw that constantly last season. We have no doubt that Brian Flores will send a litany of complicated blitzes at Williams, and last year the Vikings were one of the best at stopping the run, too (2nd in opponent rush yards per game). Again, both sides will win at certain points of the game, but we’re inclined to favor Minnesota’s resistance, which was one of the premier units in the league a season ago. While Peyton and Eli and the Monday Night Football fanbase will want points, we see this spectacle falling short. Instead, we expect a gritty, low-scoring, classic NFC North war.

Vikings and Bears pick: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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