NFL Picks

The Tampa Bay Bucs are arguably the best team in the NFL through 5 weeks. Baker Mayfield and an extremely deep wide-receiver corps has been their x-factor, a passing game that ranks in the top 10 and is the major catalyst behind the Bucs averaging 27.5 points per game (sixth). Mayfield has been damn near perfect. He is fourth overall with 1,539 yards and tied for third with 12 passing touchdowns. Entering Week 7 he has only thrown 1 interception. Lead running back Bucky Irving is doubtful for Monday night’s game and their ground attack isn’t as prolific (20th in rush yards per game), but they make up for it in their run-defense, a group that permits just 3.7 yards per carry and 88.5 rush yards per game (5th). Cohesive and with veterans in the most needed positions, Tampa Bay is an early NFC contender for a Super Bowl run — and there’s nothing fluky about it.

But this profiles as a very tough spot. The spread on this game keeps moving in the home team’s direction and we agree with it. Detroit was humbled last week at Arrowhead, which may be the case for most teams for the rest of the season, but the Lions are a true juggernaut at home. Since the 2023 season, head coach Dan Campbell’s outfit has averaged a ridiculous 34 points per game in front of their fans. This season it has already dropped 52 and 34 at Ford Field.

The Bucs are a solid run defense, but they are not as adept against the pass. They rank 26th in opponent yards per pass (7.6) and allow 231.2 pass yards per game (21st). They have only provided solid resistance against teams that are struggling through the air (Philadelphia, Houston, NYJ). The Lions have some issues on defense, again dealing with injuries, but they are one of the most potent (31.2 points per game) and explosive (second in points per play) offenses in the NFL, and they are at their best at home. Combine that with the fact that Detroit is coming off a loss and Tampa Bay is entering this contest with maximum, perhaps inflated confidence, and this is a recipe we love for the home team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions prediction: Lions -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

Bet like a Caesar with this AMAZING new customer offer from Caesars Sportsbook. If you bet just $1, you’ll receive DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS on your next 20 bets! Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PWCONTENT20X, where you can bet on our Buccaneers vs Lions picks.

The Lions are already in a vulnerable position on defense, without Terrion Arnold and damaged depth in their cornerback and safety rooms. It’s even more dire now that Brian Branch, who lost his cool and started a fight after their loss at Kansas City last week, is now suspended for one game. Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay offense doesn’t need any help getting off the ground, ranked in the top-10 in nearly every offensive category, including a sixth best 27.5 points per game. In a dome against banged up Lions defense, we have little doubt that the Bucs can bring plenty of points to Ford Field.

Of course, on the other side we feel the same way. The Lions and Bucs can both get to the quarterback, both ranked in the top-12 in that category, but that’s about the only factor that concerns us for each offense. Of course, Tampa’s run defense is very formidable, but at home the Lions have run for 286 yards in two games behind one of the best running back tandems in the NFL. Considering the fact that Detroit was held to just 17 points on the road last weekend, a long week of preparation sets up for a dominant performance from Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and company. We recognized that this total is sky high, but there’s simply no other way we can look.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions prediction: Over 52.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 53.5.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $200 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Buccaneers vs Lions predictions.

The Houston Texans entered their bye week with much needed positivity. Of course, battling the Titans at home, a team that might be the worst in the NFL, and then dominating the Ravens with half a roster were certainly two advantageous positions. At the same time, CJ Stroud and company took advantage and did what they should have done, posting wins by margin. Particularly against Baltimore, we saw a side of the Texans’ offense that was virtually nonexistent up until that point. Stroud threw four touchdowns and their offense gained 417 total yards and 27 first downs in Charm City, completely decimating what was left of the Ravens’ defense. Houston’s defense, which has never been the problem and ranks first in opponent points per game (12.2), will surely benefit from two weeks of rest as they are healthier than they’ve been in a long time. A travel spot up to the Pacific Northwest is never easy, but two weeks for Houston to work on new schemes under first year offensive coordinator, Nick Caley, should pay dividends against a very good Seattle defense. 

Speaking of Seattle, what they did in Jacksonville last week was very impressive. After battling Tampa in Week 5 and losing a very close game at home, Seattle responded by holding the upstart Jaguars to just 273 total yards and 17 first downs at home. They also kept Trevor Lawrence and his colleagues to just four yards per play.  Perhaps most impressive, Lawrence was sacked seven times in that contest. Prior to Week 6, he was one of the best-protected quarterbacks in the league. 

We can’t say anything negative about Sam Darnold, either. The Seahawks new quarterback is top three in most passing categories and leads a potent air attack that ranks first in yards per pass (9.5). Seattle’s run game still leaves much to be desired (28th in yards per carry). This makes for a very interesting battle, but since we’ve barely seen positive performances from the Texans, we must give the nod to the home team, even with the hook over a 3-point spread.

Houston Texans vs Seattle Seahawks prediction: Seahawks -3 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Bet like a Caesar with this AMAZING new customer offer from Caesars Sportsbook. If you bet just $1, you’ll receive DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS on your next 20 bets! Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PWCONTENT20X, where you can bet on our Texans vs Seahawks picks.

Even with Houston’s explosion at Baltimore 2 weeks ago, it’s not surprising to see this total so low. Houston might own the best defense in the NFL, with top-5 marks in opponent points per game and per play and in opponent yards per game and per play. What they’ll need most is an A+ pass defense against the Seahawks, as Sam Darnold has been electric despite throwing the ball less than any other team in the NFL (50.29% of plays). Strength meets strength in this sense, since Houston holds opposing quarterbacks just 6.3 yards per pass (5th) and has picked off enemy throwers on 3.27% of dropbacks. We expect Seattle’s run game to be very ineffective against the Texans, who permit just 3.9 opponent yards per rush (9th).

The same story repeats on the other side of the ball, where we project CJ Stroud to be running for his life for the majority of this contest. Seattle’s pass rush is exceptional, sacking enemy quarterbacks on 8.1% of plays. And the ‘Hawks are even better than Houston against the run (3.3 opponent yards per carry). 

As if both defenses need any more support, Monday is forecasted to be a sloppy, rainy evening in Seattle in addition to 2 previous days of rainy weather. That means the field should be less than ideal for speed. Perhaps a few random turnovers could push this game over if it gives either offense multiple short fields, but we have a hard time projecting this to eclipse 40 points.

Houston Texans vs Seattle Seahawks prediction: Under 41 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.5.

You can bet on our Texans vs Seahawks prediction with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!