MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Monday, July 20, including Mets vs Brewers
The MLB all-star break is in the past, so the first full week of Major League Baseball’s proverbial 2nd half gets underway on Monday with a full 15-game slate. It is headlined by Dodgers vs Phillies and Cardinals vs Angels on ESPN, plus we also have crunch matchups such as Pirates vs Yankees, Rays vs Blue Jays and Padres vs Braves. Here are my MLB best bets for Monday, July 20, while you can also get our expert MLB picks for every single game throughout the 2026 season.
MLB best bet: Toronto Blue Jays ML over Tampa Bay Rays (-140)
Junior Caminero avoided a major injury in the All-Star Game when he got hit by a pitch on his hand and he is already back in action. But that is just about where the good news ends for the Rays. Well, that and they are still in first place in the American League East – barely. Tampa Bay just got swept in 4 straight games by division-rival Boston and has lost 5 in a row overall. This club also stinks on the road (21-27 record, compared to 35-25 at home). That does not bode well for a trip to Toronto and a matchup with All-Star Game starter Dylan Cease.
Cease comes in with a 2.56 ERA and 148 strikeouts in 98.1 innings of work. Over his past 2 starts, the right-hander has fired 15.0 innings of shutout baseball with 20 strikeouts and just 4 hits allowed. This should be a good pitching matchup between Cease and Tampa Bay’s Nick Martinez, but I still think the Jays have nice value on the money line at home.
Read our full Rays vs Blue Jays prediction for tonight's game
MLB best bet: New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Under 7.5 (-110)
Extra rest is always a good thing for pitchers, and obviously both starters will be well rested coming out of the All-Star break. New York’s Freddy Peralta has not pitched since July 11; Milwaukee ace Jacob Misiorowski last took the mound on July 7. Misiorowski comes in with a 10-4 record, 1.62 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 167-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 111.0 innings of work. The right-hander has allowed more than 2 earned runs only once in his last 12 starts. Over his past 2 appearances, Misiorowski has recorded 21 strikeouts without walking a single batter. 10 out of the last 12 games in which Misiorowski has pitched have produced no more than 7 runs, and the only 2 exceptions are 1 with 8 runs and another with 9. Milwaukee also boasts the 4th-best bullpen ERA in all of baseball (3.58).
Peralta is more of a concern for under bettors, but he has surrendered only 3 earned runs in his last 2 outings. Only 2 batters on the Brewers’ current roster have ever faced Peralta, and unfamiliarity generally favors pitching over hitting. The Mets are coming off a series against the Phillies in which no game featured more than 7 runs. Dating back to their last series of the first half against Boston, the Mets’ last 5 games have resulted in 4, 5, 5, 7 and 7 runs. The Brewers just swept the Marlins and held them to 1 run in both the series opener and Sunday’s finale.
Check out our expert's entire analysis for their Mets vs Brewers prediction
MLB best bet: Texas Rangers ML over Chicago White Sox (-162)
The Rangers are a modest 50-49, but that record is good enough for 1st place in the AL West. To say that they will be supremely motivated as the 2nd half of the season heats up would be a gross understatement. Jacob deGrom is taking the mound on Monday, which is certainly good news for the home side. The right-hander is sporting a 3.49 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP to go along with a 122-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio 100.2 innings. Although the White Sox are also a first-place club, they are a dreadful 21-29 on the road compared to a sparkling 31-17 in Chicago. Erick Fedde (5-6, 4.15 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) is by far the worst of the 2 starting pitchers in this matchup. Texas should win this one, perhaps even in comfortable fashion.
See our full White Sox vs Rangers prediction for today's MLB matchup
