Mountain West Predictions 2026: Odds, Best Bets & Expert Picks

With the offseason chaos in the rearview mirror, it’s time to delve into the futures market for each conference, and here we’re taking a look at the Mountain West, which has gone through quite a bit of change. The Mountain West odds board looks quite different without the likes of Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State, as North Dakota State, Northern Illinois and UTEP all joined in their place.

This is a league with a variety of contenders at the top, but without a surefire favorite heading into the campaign. Let’s look at the latest college football odds for the Mountain West, along with our NCAAF picks to win the Mountain West Conference before the 2026 season starts.

Be on the lookout for all of our college football futures coverage leading up to Week 0, including previews for each conference

2026 Mountain West Conference Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.

• UNLV Rebels +265
• North Dakota State Bison +290
• New Mexico Lobos +300
• Air Force Falcons +600
• Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +700
• Wyoming Cowboys +2600
• San Jose State State Spartans +3700
• Nevada Wolf Pack +4000
• Northern Illinois Huskies +8000
• UTEP Miners +11000

See our Big 12 preview and predictions, with three best bets from our expert

2026 Mountain West contenders

UNLV Rebels (+265)

UNLV enters the season as the slight preseason favorite in the Mountain West and while I was impressed with how head coach Dan Mullen handled things in his first season in this conference a year ago, this was still a team that was extremely fortunate to finish with 10 wins. After all, the Rebels were lucky to escape lowly Idaho State in Week 0, needed to rally from a double-digit deficit to knock off an injured Miami (OH) team, allowed 48 points in a three-point win over Air Force and needed overtime to beat Utah State. They also lost a ton of pieces from last year's team -- they rank 116th in returning production per SP+ -- and I don't necessarily love the players they brought in to fill that void, Jackson Arnold chief among them. I have never been a fan of Arnold, dating back to his time in the SEC, and while he should perform better against lesser competition this time around, his glaring issues aren't likely to suddenly disappear. There's talent on this offense, but I can't trust the guy at the controls.

While I have questions with UNLV on both sides of the ball, one positive note in the Rebels' favor is their schedule. UNLV should start 3-1 out of the gate, and it could easily be 4-0 if Mullen's team is able to survive the early road trip to Hawaii. From there, the Rebels host California the week after the Bears play Clemson at home, and they follow that up by hosting North Dakota State. Road trips to Air Force and New Mexico could both result in losses, but the games around those important contests are all very manageable (Northern Illinois, Wyoming, San Jose State, Nevada) and most of them are at home. The Rebels have the feel of an 8-4 team to me, which puts me right in line with the market. I'll pass on a preseason wager and wait for a chance to sell this team during the campaign.

North Dakota State Bison (+290)

One thing's for sure: North Dakota State is no stranger to winning. After being a powerhouse at the top of the FCS for the last 15 years — winning 10 national titles in the process — the Bison have finally made the jump up to the FBS level, and the market thinks they'll make an immediate impact in the Mountain West. From a long term perspective, I think this was a slam-dunk move for the North Dakota State program, but I think some of the preseason projections for this team are a bit aggressive. After all, the Bison lost their quarterback and top wide receiver from a season ago to the NFL, to go along with three other multi-year starters on offense and a whopping seven multi-year starters on defense via the transfer portal, graduation etc.

Defensively, the Bison do bring back 11 players who played significant minutes a year ago, but it's important to keep in mind that most of those games were blowouts in favor of North Dakota State. The stakes are a lot different this time around, and Tim Polasek's defense is going to be relying on a lot of players who were not starters a year ago, all while facing a higher level of competition. Speaking of that competition, the Bison arguably have the toughest road slate in the Mountain West, including games at New Mexico, Air Force, UNLV and Hawaii. The flip side is they should win every conference home game pretty comfortably, but don't be surprised if the Bison drop three out of four on the road against the other conference contenders. The win total is accurately juiced to the over on 8.5 wins and to the under on 9.5 wins, so I'll stay away from a bet here.

Don't miss our full Big Ten preview and predictions, including a +270 best bet!

New Mexico Lobos (+300)

Not many experts knew what to make of New Mexico a season ago, but the Lobos are a known commodity now following a 9-3 regular season that exceeded all expectations. Jason Eck's side now finds itself among the best teams in the Group of Six, and there is certainly a path to the College Football Playoff for a team that is ranked 21st in returning production. Not only is this a rare Group of Six team that returns a ton of production on both sides of the ball, but the Lobos are well-positioned to sustain a high level of play due to pretty solid depth that's in place. Look no further than the offense, as the coaching staff did an excellent job in the transfer portal by bringing in quarterback Luke Moga (Oregon) to back up Jack Layne, wide receiver Troy Omeire (UNLV, Texas) and a pair of running backs from Memphis and North Texas to strengthen the skill positions. Add that to a unit that already brings back its entire offensive line, and you have a recipe for an offense that should take another step forward this fall.

As for the defense, the Lobos return some key pieces at all three levels, including Brian Booker on the defensive line and Jaxton Eck at linebacker — the preseason Defensive Player of the Year in this conference. New Mexico also added some important depth with transfers from a myriad of Power Four and high-level Group of Six schools (USC, Cincinnati, Boise State, Memphis etc). Furthermore, the schedule is pretty favorable and gives this veteran-laden team a nice runway to get up to speed before the biggest games arrive. New Mexico should start 5-1 before a crucial bye week arrives prior to a road trip to Hawaii. The Lobos will take on UNLV, North Dakota State and Air Force, but they get each of those teams at home and at night. As long as New Mexico wins two of those three contests, the Lobos should be safely in the conference title game. I've got New Mexico penciled in for nine wins, so I don't mind laying some juice with a wager on over 7.5 wins, and I could be talked into over 8.5 wins at +140.

Air Force Falcons (+600)

Air Force severely disappointed compared to preseason expectations a season ago, but this was a team that was still competitive in the majority of its games, with five of its eight losses coming by single digits. Ultimately, brutal losses and some bad injury luck changed the trajectory of the season, and it didn't help matters that the Falcons couldn't buy a stop in the crucial moments of these games. When the offense was healthy and rolling, Air Force had no trouble scoring on most teams throughout Mountain West play, but it was an abysmal defense that ended up being the downfall of the program in 2025. A year later, there is growing optimism that the defensive issues have largely been fixed, and this marks the first time in the last five seasons that the Falcons are bringing back their starting quarterback.

Liam Szarka was excellent when healthy last season, and he should be poised for a tremendous junior season — provided that he stays upright. Szarka will be protected by one of the better offensive lines in the conference, and I can blindly trust a service academy like Air Force to consistently stock its backfield with talent that will consistently produce. On the other side, the Falcons lost a couple starters on the defensive line from a season ago, which was a unit that struggled. Fortunately, Air Force is a program that replaces from within with great success every year. Furthermore, the Falcons get nearly all of their toughest opponents at home, including a crucial early-season test against North Dakota State and a matchup against UNLV in mid-October. I have Air Force projected for at least eight wins, so I've already taken a position on over 7.5 wins at +120.

Dive into our expert's full SEC preview and predictions, including a +330 best bet!

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+700)

The final Mountain West contender comes on the island, as Hawaii is looking to following up an 8-4 regular season with its first conference title since the WAC Championship back in 2010. Quarterback Micah Alejado is back in the fold following a strong 2025 campaign (3,106 passing yards, 25 touchdowns to nine interceptions), but he missed multiple games a season ago and is prone to getting a bit banged up. That's a very concerning possibility given the fact that the Rainbow Warriors have very questionable quarterback depth behind the sophomore gunslinger, while the offense as a whole is filled with questions. In fact, not only did Hawaii lose the majority of its offensive line, multiple wide receivers and its starting running back from last year's squad, the Rainbow Warriors could be without All-Conference wideout Pofele Ashlock early on due to an undisclosed injury. That doesn't bode well for an offense that is lacking explosiveness and is set to take on Stanford and UNLV to open the season.

Over on defense, the Rainbow Warriors lost seven starters from last season's unit, and most of those players started for multiple seasons under defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman. There is also some crucial turnover to monitor with the special teams unit, as kicker Kansei Matsuzawa — otherwise known as the "Tokyo Toe" — is gone following an All-American campaign a year ago. Additionally, the schedule not only features those two difficult games to open the season, but the 'Bows still have road trips to Arizona State and Wyoming and have a bad travel spot to Northern Illinois on the docket. It's far from a guarantee that Hawaii knocks off North Dakota State or New Mexico at home, so I can only look toward the under on Timmy Chang's bunch this season.

Now, check out our expert's full ACC preview and predictions, including a +2000 best bet!

2026 Mountain West Championship best bet: New Mexico (+330)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +300.

There's a lot to like with New Mexico heading into this season, and I'm pretty confident in backing a head coach that I believe to be a star in the making. The Lobos don't have the brand recognition that UNLV does, or the tradition of a North Dakota State, but what they do have is depth, experience and a schedule that sets up very nicely for a berth in the Mountain West title game and potential run at a College Football Playoff appearance. The offense should be better than it was a season ago, and Spence Nowinsky's defense can be trusted to show up in big spots, much like it did in 2025. At better than 3-1 odds, it's hard to turn down the value I'm seeing with a team that could be favored in as many as 11 games this season.

2026 Mountain West win total best bet: Hawaii under 7.5 wins (-150)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160.

I'm a fan of what Timmy Chang is doing on the island, but this season feels like one where Hawaii takes a noticeable step back. As previously mentioned, Alejado is a potential injury risk at quarterback and this roster doesn't have the proper depth to fill that void in his absence. Furthermore, the rest of the offense is depleted following an excellent 2025 campaign, and the defense also lost more than half of its production from last year's unit. If Hawaii finds itself in a number of close games this season, don't be surprised if poor special teams play leads to a crucial loss or two. The Rainbow Warriors should make a bowl game if Alejado remains healthy for the entire season, but I still have them starting the season 0-2 and needing to climb uphill just to get to six or seven wins. Let's back under 7.5 with confidence.

Don't miss our expert's National Championship predictions and +800 best bet!