There are several things working in our favor here with the Southsiders. Start with the splits. The White Sox have been considerably better at Rate Field, while Detroit has struggled away from home. The White Sox are 44-31 at home; Detroit has struggled away from Comerica Park with a 33-45 mark. Chicago has also been excellent within the AL Central, so this is exactly the type of divisional spot where I want the home team. Then we get to the pitching matchup.
Sean Burke is 9-7 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 173 strikeouts across 161.0 innings. Detroit counters with Jackson Jobe, and here's where things get interesting. Jobe's 3.89 ERA looks perfectly respectable. Dig underneath it, however, and we find a 4.86 FIP, 1.6 HR/9 and 3.4 BB/9. There's regression potential there -- and if that happens, Chicago can jump out to a big lead. Chicago's bullpen has posted a 3.15 ERA since July 1, which is a top-five unit in baseball over that span. That speaks loudly to me. The White Sox are at home, they are fighting for October, Burke provides the more established starting-pitching profile and they have an opportunity to take advantage of a starting arm due for regression. That's the recipe for a multi-run win, so I am playing it that way.
Tigers vs White Sox prediction: Chicago -1.5 (+163) available at time of publishing. Playable to +150.
