MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Monday, August 10, inc. Padres vs Brewers

After an entertaining weekend of baseball across the MLB landscape, we are blessed with another set of series starting on Monday. It is a smaller 10-game slate, but there are numerous intriguing spots to look at from a betting perspective. Let's dive in and take an early look at my MLB best bets for Monday, August 10, while you can also find out our expert MLB picks for each of tonight's matchups, including Phillies vs Cardinals on FS1, Red Sox vs Blue Jays, Mets vs Braves, Brewers vs Padres and Royals vs Dodgers.

MLB Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Under 7.5 (-115)

Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125.

I favor the under on the posted game total in Monday’s matchup between the San Diego Padres and the Milwaukee Brewers. The total sits at just 7.5 for this game, but for good reason as both lineups are tasked with very difficult matchups. This is a potential playoff matchup depending on how things unfold down the final stretch of the regular season.

Logan Henderson is where I’d like to start as the 24-year-old right-hander is one of my favorite arms to watch in the game. Despite being a rival of my beloved Pirates, Henderson is clearly someone worth turning the TV on for. Through 10 starts spanning 50 innings Henderson has posted a 0.90 WHIP thanks to a .193 opponent batting average and a miniscule 5.2% walk rate. He is striking out 32.3% of batters so far and his 2.60 xERA ranks as a 96th percentile mark. I expect Henderson to continue his dominant stretch and pitch well against an inconsistent Padres lineup coming off a late-night game Sunday.

Casey Mize was one of the bigger trade deadline acquisitions this season, but his first start with San Diego was not what the Padres had hoped for. Mize allowed 12 base runners and 8 earned runs in 3.1 innings against the Diamondbacks before being pulled in his team debut. The right-hander had been dominant with the Tigers, however, posting a 2.70 ERA in 86.2 innings with Detroit. He still holds a very solid 3.32 xERA entering Monday’s game, and Mize should benefit from pitching in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park for his home starts. Both teams are equipped with ultra-talented bullpens and elite closers, and I anticipate a low scoring game in Monday’s matchup.

Read our full Brewers vs Padres prediction for tonight's MLB matchup

MLB Best Bet: Boston Red Sox ML over Toronto Blue Jays (-155)

Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165.

Sonny Gray closed the month of July with 2 shaky outings, allowing 9 earned runs across 12 combined innings against the Athletics and Blue Jays. His prior 5 starts had combined to allow just 4 earned runs across 31.1 innings of work. Gray rebounded nicely to begin August with 6 scoreless frames and 8 Ks against the AL Central leading White Sox. It has been a very nice season overall for the veteran right-hander who enters his 22nd start of the year with a 2.78 ERA. His 3.68 xERA is slightly worse due to a lower strikeout rate, but it is still a solid mark thanks to a low walk rate and high ground ball rate. Gray is easily the preferred starting option in Monday’s matchup.

Toronto will turn to Jameson Taillon who is scheduled to make his 2nd start as a member of the Blue Jays Monday. Taillon was ineffective for the Cubs this season, posting a 5.92 ERA across 76 innings pitched. His first start for Toronto lasted just 4 innings, allowing 8 base runners and 3 earned runs in that outing. On the year Taillon sits just 3rd percentile with his 6.03 xERA, and his 15.2%-barrel rate ranks 1st percentile among MLB arms. Boston has been raking against right-handed pitching and should provide Gray with the run support needed to keep their dominant stretch going. I favor Boston at the current number.

Check out the full analysis and need-to-know stats for our Red Sox vs Blue Jays prediction

MLB Best Bet: Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks under 8.5 (+100)

Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -105.

I lean towards the under on the posted game total in Monday’s matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies. The total sits at 8.5 for Monday’s divisional matchup with a rookie starting for the Rockies and a starter fresh off injury for the Diamondbacks. Gabriel Hughes is the scheduled starter for Colorado as the former 1st round pick is set for his 7th MLB appearance and 6th start. Hughes has posted a 4.25 ERA in his first 29.2 innings pitched, but his 2.40 xERA is a stronger mark. The right-hander has limited both hard contact and walks so far, and Colorado is hopeful he can pan out after spending the 10th overall draft pick on him in 2022.

Mike Soroka is set to return from a lengthy IL stint, marking his first MLB start since June 19. Soroka apparently looked strong in his rehab outings, and his return could mark a major addition for the Diamondbacks pitching staff. The right-hander had a 3.07 ERA and 3.98 xERA in 82 innings to start the year for Arizona, and he was in excellent form prior to the injury. Soroka draws a Rockies lineup away from their home park, and they are a far easier target when outside Coors Field. I find the total to be a bit too high, and I favor the under given current pricing.

All eyes on our expert's full Rockies vs Diamondbacks prediction and analysis