MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday, September 20, inc. Cubs vs Reds

The attention is on NFL this Sunday, but that doesn't mean we can't find value in the MLB streets. Let's dive in and take a look at my three favorite bets for Sunday, September 20, and don't forget our MLB predictions for tips and analysis on every remaining game this season.

MLB Best Bet: Rhett Lowder (CIN) over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-137)

Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150.

Rhett Lowder has really struggled in 2026 for the Cincinnati Reds. His 27 outings have spanned just 124.1 innings with a 5.79 ERA and 5.34 xERA behind it. Lowder ranks just sixth percentile in whiff rate with a ninth-percentile chase rate, and he has really struggled to locate well this season. When contact is made, Lowder is allowing a 13th-percentile barrel rate and 11th percentile xBA. His last six outings have been disastrous with three or more earned runs allowed in each start. Lowder has allowed 17 total runs and 16 earned runs in just 12.1 innings so far this month, and now he is tasked with facing the hottest lineup against right-handed pitching.

In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, the Chicago Cubs sit first in wOBA with a 143 wRC+. The next best wRC+ is 132 in that sample. Chicago also holds a 7.7% K-BB% in that stretch of play as a lineup, which is insane when also pacing the sport in slugging. Lowder faced these Cubs four starts ago, allowing three earned runs in five innings pitched, and he allowed three earned runs in three innings against them back in May. Given current form of both pitcher and his opposition, I am more than willing to bet against him in this spot.

Get our full Cubs vs Reds prediction

MLB Best Bet: Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres over 8 (-110)

Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

Sandy Alcantara started on September 14th and tossed 101 pitches for the Marlins in their game with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He then came in two days later against the same opponent and recorded his first career save, tossing 13 pitches in what would have been his normal bullpen day. While not something typically done, that was pretty fun to see as a baseball fan. I don’t love his current form as a starter, however, as he has allowed four or more earned runs in four straight starts. This includes seven earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Mets two starts ago. Alcantara has tossed 206 innings this season and may be at the end of his gas tank. San Diego sits eighth in wOBA with a 115 wRC+ against righties in the last 30 days.

Miami is also hot offensively against righties in that span, sitting fifth in wOBA with a 113 wRC+ of their own. The Marlins will draw a matchup with Walker Buehler, who is set to make his 31st start of the year. Despite solid health, not much has gone right for Buehler in 2026 with his 4.58 ERA across 143.1 innings. He has been the weak link in this starting rotation and has allowed at least one home run in each of his last five starts. Simply, I am not fond of his game at this point in his career.

MLB Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 over The Athletics (+105)

Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -105.

I favor the Cleveland Guardians over the Athletics on Sunday and look for them to win their game by margin. Cleveland will start Gavin Williams for his 31st outing of the season, entering play with a 3.78 ERA and 3.77 xERA. He is an elite strikeout artist with 235 punchouts in 174 innings pitched, and his walk rate is a career-low 7.9%, which ranks 59th percentile among MLB arms. Williams does allow a ton of hard contact when contact is made, however, ranking just third-percentile in barrel rate and first percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. Gavin hasn’t allowed a home run in 18 September innings so far and has a 2.00 ERA with 31 strikeouts in that stretch of play. The Athletics sit 17th in wOBA with a 92 wRC+ in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching and now face a tough pitcher away from their hitter-friendly park.

Jack Perkins is set to make his 36th appearance of the season for the Athletics on Sunday. It will be his 16th start after transitioning from a bullpen role. He has 127 strikeouts in 110 innings pitched, sitting 72nd percentile in K% with an 82nd-percentile chase rate. The 26-year-old right-hander holds a 6.14 ERA but a far better 4.07 xERA. On the road, his ERA lowers two full runs from his home ERA. Still, Perkins is the lesser of today’s starters and is tasked with facing a Guardians lineup in terrific current form. Cleveland sits 4th in wOBA with a 121 wRC+ and a single-digit K-BB% against righties in the last 30 days.

Now check out more MLB best bets for Sunday's slate