MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Tuesday, August 25, inc. Angels vs Guardians
We have a fun slate of MLB games on tap for Tuesday, August 25, and there are numerous spots worth looking into from a betting perspective. Let's dive in and discuss my 3 MLB best bets today, while you can also find out our expert MLB picks for all 15 matchups, including Dodgers vs Braves live on TBS at 7:15 pm ET, plus Rays vs Tigers, Red Sox vs Marlins, Astros vs Yankees, Brewers vs Mets, Rangers vs White Sox, Cubs vs Diamondbacks, Pirates vs Padres and Phillies vs Mariners.
MLB Best Bet: Walbert Urena (LAA) under 4.5 hits allowed in Guardians vs Angels (-115)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
Walbert Urena is a pitcher I am very fond of backing, and I have high expectations for the Angels starter next season and beyond. Urena’s arm talent jumps off the screen when watching him, and I am more than willing to back him in Tuesday’s matchup against the Guardians. Urena has made 23 appearances and 21 starts this season spanning a combined 112.2 innings of work. In those 112.2 innings, the right-hander has allowed just 81 hits. His 90th percentile xBA, 83rd percentile barrel rate, 79th percentile hard-hit rate, and 92nd percentile ground ball rate are all elite batted ball metrics. Urena also eliminates half the batters he faces with strikeouts.
Urena does struggle with command of the zone at times, sitting at just the 10th percentile with his 12.3% walk rate issued. He is able to cover those mistakes with his hefty ground ball rate and double play balls. Those walks run up his pitch count, however, and he isn’t someone who works more than 5 or 6 innings to begin with.
In 21 starts this season, Urena has remained under this 4.5 hits allowed prop 15 times. In his last 8 starts combined, he has allowed just 22 hits but also issued 22 free passes. This inefficiency should run up his pitch count Tuesday against the Guardians. Cleveland is also hitting just .241 against righties with the 5th worst wOBA and an 89 wRC+ against righties in the last 30 days.
Get the full analysis for our Guardians vs Angels prediction tonight
MLB Best Bet: Tyler Glasnow (LAD) over 5.5 strikeouts recorded in Dodgers vs Braves (-158)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -175 odds. Can also play over 6.5 at +115 or better.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are gaining health back in their starting rotation with Blake Snell pitching very well since his return. The team is set to receive another boost on Tuesday when Tyler Glasnow returns to the rotation as well. Glasnow has been out since the beginning of May, tossing just 39.2 innings this season before going down with an injury. In those 39.2 innings, he posted a 2.70 ERA with a 2.61 xERA and a 33.1% strikeout rate. He recorded at least 6 K's in each of his starts prior to the outing he left early with injury. This includes strikeout totals of 6, 9, 7, 7, 9, and 9 K's in those starts.
Glasnow tossed 5.1 innings of scoreless ball in his last rehab start, allowing just 1 hit and 1 walk while striking out 9 batters. He will face a Braves team in his return to the majors that ranks 28th in wOBA with a 73 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Atlanta has a 23.8% strikeout against righties in that span and now faces a true strikeout artist fired up for his MLB return.
Find out MLB stats, trends and more in our full Dodgers vs Braves prediction for tonight's matchup on TBS
MLB Best Bet: Michael King (SDP) under 2.5 earned runs allowed in Pirates vs Padres (-159)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -170 odds.
The Pittsburgh Pirates offense is slumping of late. Entering Tuesday, their production against righties in the last 30 days has been lackluster. In that sample, the team sits 20th in wOBA with a 90 wRC+. They are currently in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego for their series with the Padres, and that is unlikely to help their offensive form.
Michael King is set to start for the Padres on Tuesday against these Pirates, and I anticipate a strong outing from the veteran right-hander. King enters play with a 3.38 ERA through 149 innings of work. His hard-hit rate allowed and ground ball rates are both terrific marks. He does hold a mediocre K-BB%, and his xERA is nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA, but King is still in a solid spot Tuesday against the Pirates. King has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 6 of his last 9 starts made, and 7 of the last 10 right-handers to face Pittsburgh have remained under this mark.
Read our full Pirates vs Padres prediction for today's MLB game
