Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/21/26

The Atlanta Braves offense has been rolling to start the 2026 campaign, helping the team jump out to a strong 16-7 start. I expect their offense to continue its strong form in their series with the Washington Nationals. Washington is starting Foster Griffin in Monday’s matchup. Griffin has had a solid start to his season, posting a 3.05 ERA across his first 20.2 innings of work. His xERA is at 4.41 and his FIP is at 4.34, indicating that he could see eventual regression. Those marks would still be strong for this Nationals rotation, but Griffin’s current 87.7% strand rate is unlikely to continue, especially against a Braves offense ranking 4th in wOBA with a 120 wRC+ against southpaw pitching.

Washington’s offense has also been better against left-handed pitching, but I expect them to compete against Reynaldo Lopez today. The right-hander has a 2.18 ERA in his first 20.2 innings of work, but there are some signs of concern. Lopez allowed 3 walks, 5 base hits, 3 earned runs, and an additional unearned run in his last outing, tossing 96 inefficient pitches across 21 batters faced. His 2.18 ERA is shadowed by a 3.77 xERA and a 4.49 FIP, and Lopez is someone I had regression concerns about entering this season. Washington is a youthful offense but that should help contribute toward today’s total.

Braves vs Nationals prediction: Over 8.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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