Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/09/26

The Cincinnati Reds are sending Chase Burns to the mound on Saturday in hopes that the right-hander can end the team’s 8-game losing skid. While Burns is an elite talent who enters this game in good form, all I see is a nice-looking price to bet on a team’s 9th consecutive loss. It is known that Cincinnati and Pittsburgh fanbases don’t often get along, and I’ll admit I am rooting for Houston in this spot. That being said, +140 to bet on Houston seems advantageous with their lineup’s form.

Houston ranks 3rd in wOBA with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in 2026. They have the 6th lowest strikeout rate, 12th highest walk rate, and the 11th best rate of hard contact. Carlos Correa and his 122 wRC+ will be missed as he is out for the rest of the season, but this is still a lethal lineup spearheaded by Yordan Alvarez. Burns has terrific strikeout stuff, but he is just middle of the pack in barrel rate and hard-hit rate this season.

Spencer Arrighetti can also make this a low scoring game. Arrighetti is a pitcher with regression concerns given his 5.72 xERA, but his current 1.96 ERA through 23 innings has been much needed by Houston. The Astros right-hander has an issue with walks, issuing 14 free passes already this season, but his 25 strikeouts have helped him avoid major damage. He does rank 72nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed so far, so if able to find the zone he could find success against a Reds lineup ranking 24th in wOBA with an 89 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds prediction: Astros ML (+140) available at time of publishing. Playable to +135 odds.

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