Houston Astros

Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/09/26

Great American Ball ParkFS1
Astros
16-23
Astros
Today
Reds
20-19
Reds
Cincinnati Reds
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Astros vs Reds Pickswise Expert Predictions

Money Line Pick
HOU Astros Win(+140)

The Cincinnati Reds are sending Chase Burns to the mound on Saturday in hopes that the right-hander can end the team’s 8-game losing skid. While Burns is an elite talent who enters this game in good form, all I see is a nice-looking price to bet on a team’s 9th consecutive loss. It is known that Cincinnati and Pittsburgh fanbases don’t often get along, and I’ll admit I am rooting for Houston in this spot. That being said, +140 to bet on Houston seems advantageous with their lineup’s form.

Houston ranks 3rd in wOBA with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in 2026. They have the 6th lowest strikeout rate, 12th highest walk rate, and the 11th best rate of hard contact. Carlos Correa and his 122 wRC+ will be missed as he is out for the rest of the season, but this is still a lethal lineup spearheaded by Yordan Alvarez. Burns has terrific strikeout stuff, but he is just middle of the pack in barrel rate and hard-hit rate this season.

Spencer Arrighetti can also make this a low scoring game. Arrighetti is a pitcher with regression concerns given his 5.72 xERA, but his current 1.96 ERA through 23 innings has been much needed by Houston. The Astros right-hander has an issue with walks, issuing 14 free passes already this season, but his 25 strikeouts have helped him avoid major damage. He does rank 72nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed so far, so if able to find the zone he could find success against a Reds lineup ranking 24th in wOBA with an 89 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds prediction: Astros ML (+140) available at time of publishing. Playable to +135 odds.

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Javan Shouey

A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me. For Javan Shouey media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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