Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 06/01/26

The Kansas City Royals were swept over the weekend by the Texas Rangers, extending their losing streak to 6 games. They have now lost 10 of their last 12 as they make the trip from Arlington, Texas to Cincinnati, Ohio to play the Reds on Monday night. The Reds avoided being swept by the Braves over the weekend with a 6-4 win on Sunday, breaking what was a 3-game losing streak. 

Monday’s matchup pits Kansas City’s Luinder Avila against Cincinnati’s Chase Burns, which should be a massive advantage for the Reds. Avila was a relief pitcher but has been moved into the starting rotation despite not pitching more than 3 innings in any outing. Through 21.1 innings, he’s allowed 27 hits, 12 walks, 12 earned runs and 1 home run along with striking out 20. For what it’s worth, righties have a .841 OPS against Avila, while lefties are at .943.

Burns has been an absolute machine for Cincinnati this year. He is 7-1 in his 11 starts, boasting a 1.96 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He may be due for some slight regression with an xERA almost a full run higher than his ERA and a completely unsustainable 94.5% left-on-base rate, but is Kansas City the team to force that regression? I doubt it. The Royals have one of the worst offenses in the league that lacks power and plate discipline. 

The Reds have plenty of flaws, but they are capable of winning any game in which Burns toes the rubber. In fact, they are 8-3 SU in his starts. Look for them to push that to 9 wins on Monday in comfortable fashion against a reeling Royals team off cross-country travel. After all, about two-thirds of Kansas City’s losses in May were by at least 2 runs.

Royals vs Reds prediction: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-102) at the time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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