Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/31/26

I find Sunday’s matchup between the Miami Marlins and the New York Mets to be a tough one to handicap. Nolan McLean is the scheduled starter for the Mets, set to make his 12th start of the season, and it has been an up-and-down campaign so far. He began the season very well with a 2.55 ERA through April, but May has been a different story — posting a 6.92 ERA in 26 innings this month with at least 1 home run allowed in each of his last 4 starts. That includes 2 home runs in both of his last 2 outings. Fortunately for him, he will face a Miami offense that is in poor form, ranking 26th in wOBA with an 82 wRC+ in May against right-handed pitching.

The Mets offense was also poor in May, ranking 23rd in wOBA with a 93 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Those numbers are actually an improvement from April and are obviously a bit better than Miami’s form. They will face Janson Junk on Sunday; Junk has made 11 starts spanning 60 innings of work so far, posting a 4.80 ERA in that time. His walk rate and ground-ball rate are healthy marks, but the rest of his pitching profile is underwhelming — including a non-existent strikeout portfolio. He survived 8 hits across 5 innings against the Blue Jays last time out with only 1 earned run allowed. The 2 starts prior combined for 15 earned runs. I lean towards the Mets at current pricing, but it is not a game I am rushing to bet.

Mets vs Marlins prediction: New York Mets ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price or better.

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