New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/22/26

I favor the under on the posted total through 5 innings of play in Wednesday’s matchup between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. Max Fried is the scheduled starter for New York as he is set to make his 6th start of the season. Fried’s first 2 outings resulted in 13.1 scoreless frames with only 7 base runners allowed in those contests combined. He has been less sharp in April, with 3 starts spanning 20.0 innings of work. Those 20.0 innings have resulted in a 4.95 ERA with only 13 strikeouts recorded. Still, Fried is doing an exceptional job at limiting hard contact and his underlying metrics are strong with a 2.27 xERA and 3.05 FIP. Boston has a 76 wRC+ against left-handed pitching so far while ranking 22nd in wOBA.

Ranger Suarez is set to start this matchup for Boston, marking his 5th trip to the mound in a Red Sox uniform. Suarez struggled mightily in spring training and in his first 2 regular-season starts. Those 2 outings resulted in 8 earned runs allowed across just 8.1 frames. He has bounced back nicely, however, posting 14 scoreless frames in his last 2 starts against the Cardinals and Tigers. With just 5 hits and 3 walks issued in that 2-start stretch, Suarez appears to have regained form. Despite the slow start, I am still a believer in Ranger, and he draws the more favorable split against this Yankees lineup that sits just 18th in wOBA with a 95 wRC+ against southpaw pitching so far in 2026.

Yankees vs Red Sox prediction: F5 Under 4 (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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