San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/17/26

The San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners close out their series in a matchup that sets up well for another low-scoring game, especially with the combination of pitching talent and the environment at T-Mobile Park. Seattle hands the ball to George Kirby, who continues to be one of the most efficient strike-throwers in baseball. Kirby’s elite command allows him to work deep into games while limiting walks and avoiding major innings, and he has looked increasingly sharp over his last few starts. Against a Padres lineup that has been inconsistent offensively and more reliant on situational hitting than power lately, Kirby is in a strong position to control the pace early.

On the other side, Lucas Giolito brings enough swing-and-miss ability to keep San Diego competitive. Giolito still has the ability to generate strikeouts in bunches, and Seattle’s lineup can be vulnerable to veteran pitchers who change speeds effectively and avoid free baserunners. The Mariners offense continues to rely heavily on home run production rather than sustained rallies, which can support unders in pitcher friendly ballparks like Seattle. Both teams also feature reliable bullpen arms capable of protecting lower scoring games late.

With 2 quality starting pitchers, a strong run prevention environment and offenses that can struggle to consistently string hits together, this matchup profiles as a tightly-contested game throughout.

Padres vs Mariners Prediction: Under 7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.

Sign up for Polymarket RIGHT NOW to get instant access and a $50 trading bonus after you make your first $20 deposit! You can join Polymarket by clicking here and trade on our Padres vs Mariners predictions.