Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/28/26

The Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins kicked off their weekday series on Monday evening. The Twins dominated the game, winning 11-4 after jumping all over Luis Castillo early in the game. The Mariners’ pitching hasn’t been as good as expected this season, and that includes the starter they’ll send to the mound on Tuesday in Logan Gilbert. Minnesota will counter with Joe Ryan, who has been inconsistent this season.

Gilbert’s numbers took a hit in his first two starts of the season, as he allowed eight earned runs in March in just 10.2 innings. April has been a bit nicer to the big righty, as he allowed just eight earned runs through four starts. He regressed a bit in his last start by going just 4 innings, allowing 3 earned runs, 6 hits, and 2 walks.

Ryan had a similar problem in his most recent starts, giving up four earned runs over 5 innings to a struggling New York Mets offense. It was the second game this month where Ryan was hit hard, but he has performed really well in his other four starts. The question for the Twins is which version of him they’ll get on Tuesday.

While Ryan’s ERA is around his career average, his xERA is almost a full run lower at 2.99. The same goes for Gilbert, who has a much lower xERA than his actual performance. Through some bad luck and blow-ups, both starting pitchers look much worse than they’ve actually been, which is why we could see them have good outings here as long as they settle in and quiet the offenses early.

Mariners vs Twins prediction: Under 7.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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