St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/17/26

I favor the over on the posted game total in Friday’s matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Houston Astros. Kyle Leahy is the scheduled starter for St. Louis, and he has not had a strong start to his 2026 campaign. Leahy has tossed 14 innings, allowing 16 hits, issuing 8 free passes, striking out only 7 batters and giving up 8 earned runs. His underlying metrics are worrisome as well with a 5.02 FIP and 8.30 xERA. The right-hander has yet to surpass 5 innings of work, and now he draws a tough road matchup against a hot Astros offense. Houston sits 3rd in wOBA with a 123 wRC+ against right-handed pitching through their first 556 plate appearances.

Houston is rolling with a bullpen game on Friday opened by Peter Lambert. Lambert was a member of the Rockies but missed all of 2025. He returns to the majors in an opener role, and I wouldn’t expect him to work too deep into the game. Houston’s bullpen currently sits 28th in ERA and 29th in FIP while ranking 22nd in K-BB%. They are also fresh off a taxing series, and an appearance tonight would be the 3rd appearance in 4 days for Enyel De Los Santos, Steven Okert, Kai-Wei Teng, and AJ Blubaugh. I expect to see scoring from both sides in this matchup.

Cardinals vs Astros prediction: Over 8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

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