St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/19/26

There have been 13 and 12 runs scored through the first 2 games of this series between the St Louis Cardinals and the Houston Astros, and I expect more runs in Game 3 Sunday. Neither pitching staff entered the season looking very strong on paper, and neither unit has performed well to this point. Michael Burrows is the scheduled starter for Houston in this game. Burrows was acquired from the Pirates this offseason in the 3-team trade that notably sent Brandon Lowe to Pittsburgh. The right-handed pitcher tossed 96 innings with the Pirates last year, posting a 3.94 ERA with a 4.00 FIP. So far this season he has seen dips in both his strikeout rate and his ground ball rate, and that is a poor recipe when seeking run prevention. While he is a better arm than his current 6.55 ERA through 22 innings suggests, I do not expect an immediate bounce back from Burrows today.

Matthew Liberatore is the scheduled starter for St. Louis on Sunday. The southpaw has made 4 starts for the Cardinals so far, totaling 21 innings with a 4.29 ERA. He has had a home run issue so far with at least 1 allowed in each start, and his 1.57 WHIP is hard to escape with such a low strikeout rate. Liberatore currently ranks 1st percentile in breaking ball run value, and his fastball is just average. With such a poor batted ball profile against this solid Astros lineup I expect Liberatore to struggle and at least 9 runs scored in this game.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros prediction: Over 8.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.