St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/20/26

I favor the Miami Marlins at home in Game 1 of their series with the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday. Max Meyer is the scheduled starter for the Marlins as the right-hander looks to make his 5th start of the season. His first 4 outings have combined for 19.2 innings of work and a 4.12 ERA. Meyer has yet to work past the 5th inning and he is walking more batters than he would hope, but the strikeout numbers have been there, and he has been able to avoid major damage to this point. The Cardinals enter Monday sitting 23rd in wOBA with a 93 wRC+ against right-handed pitching so far.

The Marlins offense has been much better so far against right-handed pitching, ranking 8th in wOBA and posting a wRC+ of 108. They also draw the softer matchup on paper against Michael McGreevy. McGreevy has made 4 starts so far with 21.2 innings of 2.49 ERA ball, but his underlying metrics suggest harsh eventual regression. Through his first 82 batters faced McGreevy ranks 11th percentile or worse in barrel rate, xBA, and whiff rate. He isn’t missing bats and he is allowing far too much hard contact. McGreevy has been fortunate to this point as opponents have a BABIP of just .188, but that is surely to change with the amount of contact he allows and how hard it is.

Marlins vs Cardinals prediction: Marlins ML (-134) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.