St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/21/26

St. Louis is expected to star Dustin May, who comes into this contest off consecutive quality starts after surrendering 13 earned runs on 17 hits in his first 7.1 innings. Those starts showed some upside that he demonstrated early in his career, and his advanced metrics — 4.27 xERA, 4.14 xFIP and 4.06 SIERA — suggest his 6.98 ERA is still overinflated from those 2 early-season starts. That said, his 5.6% swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career. Miami will send Chris Paddack to the bump, and he is still looking for his first win after 4 starts. At 0-3 with a 5.59 ERA, Paddack’s performance has been forgettable. Like May, his advanced metrics suggest there could be some regression to the mean — although Paddack is better at forcing swings and misses. 

There’s no edge for either team in starting pitching, but Miami has the much better bullpen thus far — as the Marlins boast a 3.35 ERA with 95 strikeouts and just 3 home runs allowed. St. Louis’ pen had a 5.36 ERA with just 69 strikeouts and 8 home runs allowed. The Marlins should have the edge in the hitting department, as well. Miami’s bats have mashed right-handed pitchers, boasting the third-best batting average in the league (.262), the sixth-best slugging percentage and the eighth-most hits. Compare that to St. Louis, which is bottom 6 in all of those metrics. Give me the fish at home.

Cardinals vs Marlins prediction: Miami ML (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125. 

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